NEW DELHI: As the Mahagathbandhan named
Tejashwi Yadav its chief ministerial candidate, the question of who will lead Bihar if the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) returns to power has once again taken centre stage. The
NDA has so far refrained from naming chief minister Nitish Kumar as its CM face, a silence that has given the opposition fresh ammunition.
Addressing rallies in Simri Bakhtiyarpur and Keoti on Friday, Tejashwi claimed that Nitish "will not be made CM again" even if the NDA wins.
"Amit Shah has made it clear that elected legislators will decide the CM of Bihar after elections. Nitish Kumar will not be made the CM if the NDA is voted to power again," Yadav told supporters, alleging that JD(U) leader had been "hijacked" by BJP.
"Our 'chacha' (Nitish Kumar) is not in control. Two people from Gujarat, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, are running Bihar from Delhi," Tejashwi quipped, urging voters to choose a "Bihari" over a "Bahri" (outsider).
On the other hand, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the NDA’s Bihar campaign with twin rallies in Samastipur and Begusarai. While he stopped short of naming Nitish Kumar as the CM candidate, he said the NDA "under the leadership of CM Nitish Kumar will break all previous electoral records."
So why has the NDA avoided an official announcement naming Nitish as its CM face?
A seasoned survivor with a shifting base
Nitish Kumar, 73, remains one of Bihar’s longest-serving chief ministers, having helmed the state since 2005 across three successive assembly elections, 2010, 2015 and 2020, albeit under shifting alliances.
In 2010, he led the NDA to a landslide victory with the BJP as partner; in 2015, he joined hands with Lalu Prasa's RJD and the Congress under the Mahagathbandhan banner to defeat the BJP; and in 2020, he returned to the NDA fold after another political flip.
But the JD(U)'s strength has steadily declined, from 115 seats in 2010 to just 43 in 2020, even as the BJP has grown stronger within the coalition. This erosion, coupled with anti-incumbency, voter fatigue, and the rise of younger rivals like Tejashwi, makes it difficult for Nitish to retain his centrality without contest. The NDA, meanwhile, appears reluctant to confront that reality publicly.
A coalition walking on eggshells
The NDA coalition in Bihar includes the BJP, JD(U), Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), and Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), each with distinct caste bases and political ambitions.
While Nitish remains chief minister, the BJP is now the dominant partner, both organisationally and electorally. Publicly endorsing Nitish again as CM could risk friction within the alliance, with smaller allies wary of being sidelined and the BJP reluctant to appear deferential.
Without an official announcement, the BJP appears intent on keeping the question open until after the results, allowing it to weigh leadership choices depending on the post-poll arithmetic.
Why lock yourself in before results?
In a politically fragmented state like Bihar, post-election numbers often dictate leadership outcomes.
By not naming Nitish now, the NDA preserves its ability to reassess the leadership equation after the results, depending on seat tallies and coalition dynamics.
This ambiguity gives the BJP room to manoeuvre - should it win a majority on its own or command a dominant share of NDA seats, it can bargain for greater control or even push for a leadership change.
The age question
After nearly two decades in power, Nitish faces visible anti-incumbency, particularly among Bihar’s younger voters, many of whom have only seen him in office.
The Election Commission estimates that the state has over 14 lakh first-time voters (aged 18–19) and another 1.6 crore in the 20–29 age bracket, making the youth vote decisive.
Tejashwi Yadav, 36, has positioned himself as the youthful alternative, promising jobs and change. Against this backdrop, the NDA may prefer not to foreground Nitish too heavily. His age and concerns around health could alienate younger voters seeking a generational shift.
Instead, the NDA has chosen to campaign under the "double-engine sarkar" banner, foregrounding Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership alongside Bihar’s governance record, rather than a single CM face.
This formula has served the BJP well in states such as Maharashtra, Delhi, Odisha, and Haryana, where it has contested without projecting a chief ministerial candidate.
To counter the "age" narrative against Nitish, the NDA is also leveraging Chirag Paswan's appeal among younger voters and Dalit constituencies.
Coalition sensitivities
Projecting Nitish too prominently could also upset other NDA allies who aspire to larger roles, including Chirag Paswan, who has been eyeing leadership visibility within his caste base.
For the BJP, too, there’s a long-term incentive to gradually assert its own leadership in Bihar rather than continue to play second fiddle. Keeping Nitish's position ambiguous helps avoid internal resentment and sustains the NDA’s message of "collective leadership."
Personality to performance
Unlike the opposition, which has clearly named Tejashwi as its CM face, the NDA’s campaign revolves around governance and continuity rather than personality.
Its messaging highlights infrastructure expansion, welfare schemes, and law-and-order stability under NDA rule, attributing credit jointly to the Centre and the state government.
This approach allows the alliance to sidestep uncomfortable questions about Nitish’s longevity and popularity while emphasising unity under the PM Modi-led national framework.
According to a recent CVoter opinion poll, Tejashwi Yadav is currently the most popular CM face in Bihar, with Nitish trailing behind even Jan Suraaj chief Prashant Kishor, a sign of shifting public sentiment.
A deliberate silence
The NDA's silence on Nitish's leadership appears deliberate, a calculated move to retain maximum flexibility and minimise controversy.
The alliance understands that Nitish Kumar remains both an asset and a liability: a familiar face of governance but also a symbol of stagnation for some voters.
By not committing publicly, the NDA keeps its post-poll options open, ensuring that if voter sentiment tilts one way or another, it can recalibrate accordingly.
Nitish Kumar's 20 years of track record and reputation as Sushasan Babu (Mr. Good Governance) once made him the undisputed pivot of Bihar politics. But in 2025, the ground has shifted.
The BJP’s growing dominance, voter fatigue, and a generational churn have made Nitish's position more conditional than ever.
For now, the NDA has chosen ambiguity over assertion. Whether that silence helps the alliance or weakens it will be known soon enough.
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