21% water shortage expected for Kharif season in Pakistan after India puts Indus Treaty in abeyance

India's decision to keep the Indus River treaty in abeyance has caused alarm in Pakistan. The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) advisory committee on Monday expressed deep concern over a sudden decrease in River Chenab inflows at Marala due to short supply by India, which may result in a 21% water shortage in Pakistan during the early Kharif season.

IRSA Advisory Committee meeting was held to approve the Anticipated Water Availability Criteria for the balance period of Kharif from May to September 2025 under the Chairmanship of Sahibzada Muhammad Shabir, Chairman IRSA at IRSA HQS Islamabad.

"Indus River System Authority Advisory Committee (IAC) reviewed the water situation for the remaining months of "Early Kharif" (May - Jun 10) Late Kharif (Jun 11 - Sep) season. It was noted with concern unanimously that sudden decrease in river Chenab inflows at Marala due to short supply by India would result in more shortages in Early Kharif Season," the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) stated in a press release.

Pakistan may face a significant water shortage during the Kharif season due to reduced water supplies from India.

"IAC declared an overall shortage of 21 per cent for the remaining Early Kharif Season in case supplies in River Chenab remains normal. However, the situation would be monitored daily and if the decrease continues in "River Chenab", the shortages would be revisited accordingly. The Late Kharif Shortages are expected to be 7 per cent," it added.

Earlier, the water level in the Chenab River witnessed a significant drop in Akhnoor, Jammu and Kashmir, after the closure of gates at the Baglihar and Salal Dams.

Locals expressed support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision to put the Indus Waters Treaty on hold, which they believe has led to the decrease in water levels.

Speaking to ANI, one of the locals exhorted that they do not want even a single drop of water to be supplied to Pakistan while extending support to the Indian Army and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

A local Kalyan Singh said, "Earlier, the Chenab River used to flow at a height of 25-30 feet, but now there is hardly 1.5-2 feet of water left here. This is because of PM Modi's decision to put the Indus Waters Treaty on hold...We do not want even a single drop of water to be supplied to Pakistan. We are all standing with the Indian Army and PM Modi..."

The water shortage is a likely fallout of India's decision to hold the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 in abeyance following the Pahalgam attack, which was attributed to Pakistan's support for cross-border terrorism.

The Treaty allocates the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan and the Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India. At the same time, the Treaty allows each country certain uses of the rivers allocated to the other. The treaty gives India 20% of the water from the Indus River System and the rest 80% to Pakistan.

The attack in Pahalgam occurred on April 22 at Baisaran meadow, where terrorists targeted tourists, killing 25 Indian nationals and one Nepalese citizen, and leaving several others injured.