India has tackled Trump threat well so far. Now comes the hard part

India has done well to successfully dodge most of the things Donald Trump has thrown at it. In part, this is because New Delhi decided it will proactively accommodate him on his two key grouses: immigration and tariffs.But, now, we may be headed for more interesting times as India takes over the rotating presidency of BRICS. Trump’s already announced in January that any effort by the grouping towards de-dollarisation could result in 100% tariffs. This month, he said that alleged “anti-American policies” by BRICS could attract an additional 10% tariff.As on other issues, the government has no intention of challenging the US either on de-dollarisation or any anti-American move, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said so repeatedly. But holding the BRICS presidency, India might find itself as collateral casualty. As it is, individually three principal BRICS countries — Russia, China, South Africa — are the target of Trump’s ire.India has, along with other countries, so far escaped ‘Liberation Day’ reciprocal tariffs. But it ran square into Trump in the wake of Operation Sindoor. Countering the Indian narrative, Trump has insistently claimed he worked out the ceasefire and is ready to mediate on the Kashmir issue. The only weapon New Delhi has had is to politely ignore the issue, even as Pakistan has rubbed it in by supporting Trump’s candidature for the Nobel Peace Prize.It’s not just luck but a lot of hard work that has kept India on the right side of Trump. Recall that in the run-up to Trump’s inaugural, foreign minister S Jaishankar was in Washington for nearly a week at the end of December last year, working the US Congress, MAGA-leaning officials and prospective cabinet officials. He was aided by foreign secretary Vikram Misri and Indian ambassador VM Kwatra.The agenda was to connect early with the incoming administration and see if the president could be persuaded to come to India for the Quad summit to be hosted by India later this year. There was some talk about a potential Modi invite for the inaugural. But, in the end, it was Jaishankar who bagged a privileged front-row seat on January 20. Subsequently, there was an effort to get a Modi visit to Washington in February. But that, too, did not pan out.As soon as it became clear that Trump was winning the election, trade officials in India began to prepare for the incoming administration. Bilateral trade between India and the US exceeded $118bn in 2023-24, where India enjoyed a $32bn trade surplus.Plans were shaped to offer tax cuts on farm products and key imports, high-end medical devices, motorcycles, as well as enhance the purchase of LNG (liquified natural gas) and defence equipment. Indian officials pitched the idea that the country could replace China as an alternative manufacturing base. New Delhi saw a niche for India as a supplier of low-end products as part of the supply chain of the ‘Make in America’ programme. medium nocaptionhttps://youtu.be/JnUqZ0QbO_U?si=1bAOvL8UdOudqJwgIn January, India also aligned itself with another element of the Trump programme. It agreed to take back 18,000 Indian nationals who were set to be deported by the US. New Delhi made it clear that it would cooperate in any action against illegal migrants.But, soon, it became clear that the Trump regime was not differentiating between friends and enemies. ‘Liberation Day’ reciprocal tariffs hit India at 26%. The regime soon walked back on them on account of the market crash and said they would be paused for 90 days as of April 9 at 10%, which has been now extended till August 1.Now, the tariff clock is ticking, as the US and India race to complete their trade deal. Wild cards are scattered all around. There is the issue of 50% tariffs on copper, and a threatened 200% on pharma products that could be devastating for India.Separately — and since this is germane to India’s hopes — the US seems to have arrived at a framework agreement with China. Details are scarce, but China seems to have made it easier for the US to acquire Chinese rare earths and rare minerals magnets — though average US tariffs remain at 51.1% and China’s at 32.6%.The Brazil BRICS summit was, despite all the hoopla and tough language on trade, a bit of a letdown. Two of its leading lights — R and C — Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, stayed away. As it is, expansion of the bloc to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the UAE and Indonesia has diluted even the limited coherence it had.Last week at the summit, Modi declared that “under India’s BRICS presidency, we will work to define BRICS in a new form”. In his characteristic ‘acronymous’ style, he said BRICS would stand for “Building Resiliency and Innovation for Cooperation and Sustainability”, an agenda that would give priority to Global South issues, rather than challenging the developed world on issues relating to trade and global governance, let alone currency.Clearly, India has no intention of straying into the crosshairs of Trump’s sights. But the problem is that US policies — whether on trade, stability of the dollar or Pakistan — could leave it with no options but to react and face the Trump bullets head-on.The writer is with a New Delhi-based think tankLead illustration: Uday Deb