How caste equations can play out in Maharashtra elections

As we found out on the day of US results and the Lok Sabha and Haryana assembly polls before that, election hawa can be tricky to read. Still, as a political researcher and commentator, one is in the business of sticking one’s neck out.

When it comes to battleground Maharashtra, fieldwork suggests that the lead Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) had over the ruling Mahayuti alliance till just a few months ago doesn’t seem as impressive as before. This is mainly due to two reasons.

First, the ‘samvidhan khatre mein hai’ narrative that Congress and its MVA allies had built to mobilise a section of OBCs and Dalits doesn’t have the same power it did during the parliamentary elections.

Second, BJP-led Mahayuti learned from its experience in LS elections and rolled out many pro-people and pro-poor schemes such as Ladki Bahin Yojana in the state. As a more localised strategy to win over the middle class, it removed toll tax at many Mumbai entry/ exit points. This dual strategy of focusing on nari (women) and gareeb (poor) may work to reshape traditional loyalities of castes and communities in Maharashtra one way or another.

As for MVA, it is still banking on evoking the sympathy vote due to the perception that BJP engineered the splits in NCP and Shiv Sena. But for a deeper understanding, let’s look at how various caste groups will vote…

MARATHAS: SPOILT FOR CHOICE

Reservation for Marathas, who constitute around 30% of the population, is a key issue in this election. This dominant and politically influential community seems to be more divided than it was in the LS poll. The main reason for this is the availability of multiple political options. Both Shiv Sena (UBT) and Shiv Sena led by CM Eknath Shinde have a good Maratha base but so do Sharad Pawar of NCP(SP) and NCP (Ajit Pawar). So, Maratha voters have four different parties to choose from. Since they are mostly landed peasant communities, they may have mobilised around farmer-related issues such as the agrarian crisis which may give an edge to MVA. The recent withdrawal of Manoj Jarange Patil, a Maratha reservation activist, from the race will prevent further division of Maratha votes.

OBC: THINK MICRO
The thing to remember here is that the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), who constitute around 38% of the population, are not a homogeneous group. They include politically important communities such as Kunbis, Malis, Vanjaris, and Dhangars. These micro groups may be mobilised based on the caste of the contesting candidate, local issues, and social connect. Besides the appeal of PM Modi, BJP has widened its base among them by increasing representation of OBCs in the party. OBC leaders like Chhagan Bhujbal and others are also working hard to mobilise OBCs in the favour of Mahayuti. As for the Congress, it can bank on its state unit chief Nana Patole, who is an OBC, to make a dent in votes.

DALIT: BUDDHIST FACTOR
Maharashtra is known for its tradition of Dalit assertions. The percentage of SCs is around 12%. Mahars, the dominant Dalit community in Maharashtra, seems inclined towards MVA. A large number of Mahars have converted to Buddhism in the state and look for their space in non-BJP politics. Issues like the danger of the Constitution being amended to end reservations and the perceived fear of Hindutva dominance will resonate with them.

But the thing to note is that an impressive number among them are beneficiaries of the govt’s propoor policies which could make them tilt towards Mahayuti. As for non-Mahar SC communities such as Mang, Matang, Chambhar who have not converted to Buddhism, they have emerged as BJP’s vote base in the state for the last few decades.

TRIBAL & MUSLIM: EDGY BUSINESS
Tribals, who are around 9% in the state, have been a Congress vote bank for a long time. But that’s not a cinch either as BJP’s constant emphasis on tribal development and identity (janjatiya gaurav) and RSS-inspired Vanvasi Kalyan Kendra social support programmes have attracted a large section of tribals towards BJP and Mahayuti.

The alliance’s campaigns in tribal regions emphasises the BJP initiative to make a tribal the President of India. Muslims may go towards MVA in impressive numbers. Though some of their votes may be divided in seats where Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM is strong but since the party is contesting only 16 seats as compared to 44 in the last assembly elections, his intention clearly seems to be to avoid splitting the Muslim vote. Maharashtra still looks like a close fight.

The Mahayuti will hope that beneficiaries of various govt schemes may tilt the result in their favour. MVA hopes to gain sympathy votes but as we know, such sentiments don’t last for a long time. However, the growing discontent among youths and farmers may work for the coalition.

Narayan is director, G B Pant Social Science Institute