For weeks, asteroid 2024 YR4 has been making headlines, fueling fears that it could collide with Earth in December 2032. Dubbed a “city killer”, the space rock had scientists keeping a close watch as its risk level fluctuated. But now, there’s good news—NASA has significantly lowered the probability of impact, bringing a sigh of relief to the astronomical community and the public alike.
On February 19, NASA took to X (formerly Twitter) to share the update, revealing that fresh orbital data had dramatically reduced the impact risk. Just a day earlier, calculations had suggested a 1 in 32 chance (or 3.1% probability) of a collision—making 2024 YR4 the most concerning asteroid ever recorded in NASA’s Sentry Risk Table for near-Earth objects. Now, with better tracking, the probability has dropped to 1 in 67 (1.5%), and experts expect it to keep decreasing as more data comes in.
The European Space Agency (ESA) also followed suit, lowering its own estimate to 1.38% (1 in 73). Scientists had widely anticipated this shift, and many now believe the chance of impact will soon fall to zero.
Richard Moissl, head of ESA’s Planetary Defence Office, explained that this was expected. He described how the asteroid’s “uncertainty region”—the area where it could hit—has been shifting away from Earth, making a direct strike less and less likely. However, there’s still some work to do, and scientists are eager to gather more observations. In fact, the James Webb Space Telescope is set to take a closer look at the asteroid next month, which could provide even more clarity.
While Earth seems to be in the clear, there’s still a 0.8% chance that 2024 YR4 could hit the Moon. At an estimated 40 to 90 meters wide, the asteroid isn’t large enough to cause a global disaster, but if it were to strike a populated area, the damage would be devastating—capable of flattening an entire city.
NASA reassured the public that its understanding of the asteroid’s trajectory improves with every new observation and promised to keep people updated. For now, it looks like the danger is fading, and experts are confident that as more data comes in, 2024 YR4 will soon pose no threat at all.
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