​​Asteroid 2024 YR4 might hit the moon in 2032 and the Earth could witness a meteor shower​

Space is a place of endless fascination and mysteries, but our nearest celestial neighbour, the Moon, has always felt distant and safe. Until now. The story around asteroid 2024 YR4 brings that peace into question.

This modest-sized space rock, comparable to a 10‑ or 15‑storey building, this meteor had come into notice with a slight chance of striking Earth. That risk has now been effectively ruled out. Yet, scientists are watching with keen interest, because there's still a non-zero chance it could collide with the Moon in December 2032.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered in December 2024 and measures about 53–67 metres across, roughly the size of a city‑block building, according to NASA. Initially, it carried a small impact risk to Earth, but after extensive observations, including from ground-based telescopes, scientists have ruled out any significant threat to our planet. Its orbit brings it into near-Earth space periodically, but forecasts show Earth will not be struck in 2032.

Recent data from the James Webb Space Telescope have refined the asteroid’s trajectory and raised the estimated probability of a lunar impact in December 2032 to about 4.3%. While that means a 96% chance it will miss the Moon, the small possibility is enough to draw scientific attention and simulation modeling.

If it strikes, simulations suggest the impact could release energy equivalent to 5–6.5 megatons of TNT, enough to carve a crater roughly 1 km wide on the lunar surface—the largest in about 5,000 years. The impact may eject up to 10^8 kg of material into space, with as much as 10%, which could be equal to millions of kilograms, potentially reaching Earth a few days later.

Some of the moon fragments could survive atmospheric entry and produce a meteor shower visible from Earth, although slower and dimmer than typical meteors, but possibly spectacular because of their lunar origin. More important than this, however, is the risk to satellites in low-Earth orbit. Experts warn that hundreds to thousands of mm‑sized impacts could strike surviving satellites over days or months, potentially disrupting communications or navigation systems.