BENGALURU: An analysis of data from the Election Commission reveals that the
BJP has won more reserved seats — for
scheduled castes and scheduled tribes
in eight elections from 1989 — than the
Congress which has been traditionally been associated with these communities.
The Election Commission data shows that of the 976 MPs elected from reserved constituencies across the country between 1989 and 2014, 30% are from the BJP compared to 28% of the Congress. Analysts and psephologists TOI spoke with attribute this to a reduction in upper caste votes for the Congress, which are said to play a major role in reserved constituencies.
"If you look at the constitution of such segments, you will find that the SC and ST population is not more than 40% to 45% on average," said political analyst S Mahadevaprakash. "So other votes do matter here and is just as crucial as the consolidation of minority votes in general segments."
It is widely accepted that Congress' popularity began to slide from 1989, a year which is seen as key to the BJP's performance. It is from this year when the grand old party steadily began losing its hold on upper caste votes.
Ashis Nandy, political psychologist, told TOI: "The SC and ST community, unlike upper caste voters, are not united and there is a lot of fragmentation. Typically in a reserved constituency, there are many SC or ST candidates. This means the votes are split and the party that is able to consolidate other votes wins the seat."
Complete coverage: Lok Sabha electionsOf the eight elections, the BJP won more reserved seats in five — 1996, 1998, 1999, 2004 and 2014. The last election saw the saffron party bag the highest number of reserved seats — 66 — by a single party.
However, Karnataka bucks the trend. The Congress has won 50% of the 38 seats, compared to BJP's 31.6%. Barring 2004 and 2009 when the Congress-led UPA for med the gover nment at the Centre, the BJP either secured fewer reserved seats than Congress or the same number of seats.
Notwithstanding BJP's growing stature in the state, Congress has managed to keep most of the reserved seats, thanks to its legacy and consecutive governments' pro-SC/ST stand.
Political analyst Harish Ramaswamy explains: "Karnataka has traditionally been good to the SC and ST population. Successive governments have implemented some good programmes. Since the Congress has been at the helm in most of these years, the party's candidates have managed to retain popularity in such constituencies. And, given the fact that the BJP is yet to completely establish itself, it means that the Congress still manages to attract some Lingayat and Brahmin votes."