Lok Sabha elections: Didi seeks to dominate but will Left votes go Right?

Eight

Lok Sabha

constituencies are going to polls today as the ballot battle reaches central Bengal before moving towards Kolkata and south, with high-profile candidates battling it out in a terrain which has witnessed changes in political equations and dynamics since the 2016 assembly elections.

Congress candidate and four-time MP Adhir Chowdhury is probably facing his toughest battle from Baharampur this time, with the ruling Trinamool upping its ante against him. For BJP, Union minister in the Narendra Modi cabinet, Babul Supriyo, is fighting to retain the Asansol seat that he had won in 2014. And Trinamool strongman and the party’s Birbhum president Anubrata Mandal is hell-bent on protecting his fiefs — Bolpur and Birbhum.

The desperation among all political parties is palpable. The Trinamool chief wants to win all 42 seats so that she can play a key role in the next government in Delhi after the elections and BJP wants 23 seats from Bengal to make up for the party’s projected loss in Uttar Pradesh. And the desperation has triggered violence between Trinamool and BJP in some parts of the state.

Mamata Banerjee is banking on division of opposition votes between BJP, CPM and Congress as the Left had gained out of vote division in the 2006 assembly polls. BJP, on the other hand, is working on a different paradigm — it has successfully managed to bring anti-incumbency to the fore, which is otherwise associated with Assembly polls. The party has unsettled the poll matrix by raising the Narendra Modi government’s fight against terrorism and ‘appeasement’ politics by the Mamata government. BJP hopes the strategy will help the party make a quantum leap in Bengal. In six of the eight constituencies, BJP’s vote share was between 12% and 17% in the 2014 elections, not enough to win a seat in a triangular fight. In 2014, the Left couldn’t cut into Trinamool’s votes. Instead, a portion of the Left vote went to BJP. The Left lost 12.5% of its vote share; BJP’s improved by 12%.

While BJP and Trinamool are trying to polarise votes this time, the saffron party’s prospects depend heavily on whether the Left can prevent its further erosion. However, for the first time since Mamata came to power, Trinamool fears a dip in its vote share. All these factors can trigger violence on the election day. This explains why the Election Commission has arranged for central forces in 98% polling booths in the fourth phase, a 6% increase in force deployment, with 100% paramilitary coverage for Birbhum booths.

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