Lok Sabha elections: Good assembly showing gives Congress hope

Nanu Patel and Uttam Patel, both from the Congress, had been elected several times from Valsad Lok Sabha seat since 1952, where 62% of the electorate is tribal voters. Mani Chaudhary of the BJP was elected in the 1990s and Congress’ Kisan Patel in 2004 and 2009.

However, Kisan Patel lost to BJP’s Dr K C Patel by two lakh votes in 2014. Historically, whoever has won Valsad has formed the government in New Delhi.This is perhaps why the Congress’ focus is on this seat. The Congress is hopeful of doing well this time because it won Dang, Vansda and Kaprada, of the seven assembly segments that make up the parliamentary constituency in 2017.
About 70.69% of the constituency is rural and scheduled castes (SC) and scheduled tribes (ST) make up 1.84% and 62.69% of the electorate. The constituency has 16,29,311 voters and 2,014 polling stations.
Tribal development and forest minister Ganpat Vasava, the BJP in-charge for the constituency, told TOI, "We won by a good margin in 2014 and this time the margin will be bigger."
Dr K C Patel, who defeated sitting MP Kisan Patel by 2,08,004 votes in 2014, got large leads from semi-urban areas of Valsad, Pardi and Umargam.
Kukna, Dhodia and Varli sub-clans of tribals are big factors in Valsad. There are rumours that Congress may give its ticket to Jitu Chaudhary, the MLA from Kaprada. Congress leaders had also called Anant Patel, Vansda MLA, a member of the Dhodia tribe, to New Delhi for talks. This could mean that Kisan Patel is out of the reckoning.
Dr K C Patel’s elder brother, D C Patel, who fought on BJP ticket in 2009 and lost to Kisan Patel, is causing problems for the BJP. D C Patel has revolted, forcing Ganpat Vasava to say, "We have left the matter to the two brothers to sort it out."
Dr K C Patel was caught in a honeytrap row in 2017. D C Patel accuses him of being responsible for his defeat in 2009. A BJP leader said, "If the party has renominated him, it is our duty to see he wins."