The Mehsana
Lok Sabha
constituency was one of the two seats with which BJP opened its electoral account in the country in 1984. And it is the last seat which the party would want to lose in 2019. This seat covers the home towns of both Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is from Vadnagar, and BJP president Amit Shah, whose native place is Mansa. BJP’s A K Patel won Mehsana in 1984 from Congress and has won the seat in seven of the nine
Lok Sabha elections
held.
The Hardik Patel-led
Patidar
reservation agitation also began here, at Visnagar in Mehsana district, in July-August 2015, demanding OBC status and reservations greatly eroded the BJP’s support base. In the 2017 assembly elections, the BJP recorded its worst ever electoral performance in two decades.
Patidars form 25% (3.98 lakh voters) of the electorate.
Kalabhai Patel, a farmer from Paldi village near Mansa, says, "In the 24 villages between Vijapur and Mansa, water is available only at about 1,200 feet, which was 600 feet earlier. Farmers are being forced to leave agriculture and they can’t find jobs. Produce prices are not sustainable and farmers are thus angry at the government."
The Thakors are the next biggest social group here with 3.31 lakh voters (20%). The Patidar agitation also saw the launch of a counter movement, the ST-ST OBC Manch led by Thakor Sena leader Alpesh Thakor, which opposed OBC status for Patidars.
Ramaji Thakor, president of the Mehsana unit of the Kshatriya Thakor Sena, said, "I joined Alpesh in 2013 but I can say with certainty that his leaving the Congress won’t have any big effect here."
The upward social mobility of another Patidar sub-caste, Anjana Chaudhary Patels, who dominate the cash-rich dairy cooperatives of Mehsana like Dudhsagar and form 3.8% of the voter population, has also resulted in heartburns amongst Patidars. The Chaudharys get OBC reservation. With the bulk of jobs at lower levels such as those of teachers, constables and talatis going to other castes, Patidars were feeling the pinch in this Lok Sabha seat. Satish Patel, the PAAS convenor for Mehsana, said, "The Patidar agitation had an effect in 2017 and it will have one in 2019."
In the 2017
Gujarat
elections, the BJP won 4 assembly seats (Visnagar, Kadi, Mehsana and Vijapur). The Congress won three including Unjha, the hub of the cumin market and the location of the principal temple to the Kadva Patidar deity, Maa Umiya. The other two seats that Congress won were Bechraji and Mansa. In the 2017 assembly election, the Congress had garnered a higher share of votes, 47.89% against the BJP’s 46.44%.
Following the Patidar agitation, the Mehsana district panchayat, taluka panchayat and the Mehsana nagarpalika, all formerly BJP bastions, saw the Congress come to power. The BJP is thus putting every effort into nullifying the effect of the agitation on this ‘prestige seat’.
An important defection has been that of Unjha MLA Asha Patel, who won the seat for the Congress during the 2017 assembly elections.
A J Patel, the Congress, is a former IAS officer who mainly served in the industries department. He said, "The issues in this area affecting farmers and farm labour are pressing."
The BJP has fielded Sharda Patel, the wife for former Gujarat industries minister, the late Anil Patel. She said, "We are certain the Thakor community is also with us. This is a BJP stronghold and this election is to make Narendra Modi, who is from here, the PM again." Nitin Patel, deputy CM and Mehsana MLA, who won by a slim 2,200-vote margin in 2017, said, "Mehsana has been a traditional BJP seats for many decades. There is no major issues that the people are unhappy about here."