NEW DELHI: Exit polls on Wednesday concurred that
Congress has a clear edge in the Karnataka assembly elections, but disagreed on whether or not the party would win a majority in the 224-member house. If Saturday’s results mirror these projections, they could give a boost to Congress claims to being the natural leader of any opposition alliance in the run-up to 2024 Lok Sabha polls and leave
BJP out of office in all southern states.
All the exit polls agree that the Congress tally will improve from the 80 seats it won in 2018 and BJP will see a drop in its tally from 104, though they differ on the extent of the increase or decrease.
The pollsters were also unanimous in projecting a sharp drop in the tally of JD(S) from the 37 it won five years ago, but the party could still end up holding the aces if the results throw up a hung assembly.
Three of the six polls analysed here gave Congress a majority, one of them only just. The India Today-Axis poll forecast the most decisive mandate, giving Congress between 122 and 140 seats and BJP only 62-80. The News24-Today’s Chanakya poll gave wider ranges of seat forecasts, but the middle of the ranges suggest 120 seats for Congress and 92 for BJP. The Times Now-ETG poll gave Congress 113 seats, the minimum needed for a majority, and BJP 85.
Two other polls forecast ranges that make a Congress victory possible, but a hung assembly more likely. The Zee News-Matrize poll gave Congress 103 to 118 seats, the mid-point of which would leave the party agonizingly close, while the ABP-CVoter poll forecast 100 to 112 seats for the party.
The Republic TV-P-Marq poll projected a much more even fight between the two main contestants with Congress winning 94 to 108 seats and the BJP 85 to 100 seats, which would mean a hung assembly.
Exit polls have had a mixed record in the past with some notable successes and some completely off the mark. The official results will be available on Saturday, March 13.
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