Gujarat assembly elections: SWOT analysis of BJP, Congress and AAP

NEW DELHI: The Election Commission on Thursday ended the suspense around elections in Gujarat and announced that the state will vote in two phases on December 1 and 5 to elect a new assembly.

The results will be declared on December 8 along with that for Himachal Pradesh, which votes in a single phase on November 12.

All eyes will be on Gujarat, though, as the entry of Aam Aadmi Party has injected some drama into a contest which was widely seen as another cakewalk for the BJP.

The AAP has been making a lot of noise in the state, which stands in sharp contrast to the Congress's relatively quiet campaign this time around. We run the rule over the three parties to see where each one stands.


BJP

Strengths: The state is the BJP's crown jewel and has steadfastly backed the party since 1995. It is also the home state of PM Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah. The bastion is in no danger of falling any time soon.

Weaknesses: Nothing that could bring it down but anti-incumbency will catch up some time, maybe not in this election. The Morbi disaster will also play on voters' minds when they enter the voting booth and some are sure to ask if the BJP has started taking them for granted. A change of chief minister midway betrayed a lack of confidence. AAP is widely expected to take away Congress votes but if it also makes a dent in the BJP's support base and appeals to fence-sitters, it could spell trouble. Also, the warning signs were there in 2017 when the BJP shed 16 seats. Any further diminution could be lethal.

Opportunities: The party just needs to keep an even keel and that should see it through. The Modi-Shah combo doesn't look in any real danger of losing Gujarat.

Threats: It needs to guard against complacency which is inevitable after 27 continuous years in office. AAP's soft Hindutva and good governance pitch has the potential to wean away some voters who are not diehard BJP fans but still vote for it.


Congress

Strengths: The BJP's iron grip on the state should have meant a dead Congress but that is hardly the case. Last time, the party ended up with a creditable 77 seats, an increase of 16 and not too far behind BJP's 99. This in a state where the cult of Modi rules. Congress still has large pockets of support, particularly in the rural areas, and it can mount a challenge if it gets its act together.

Weaknesses: Like elsewhere, here too the Congress appears listless and the party organisation is a shambles. Hardik Patel's exit could be a dampener. State unit chief Jagdish Thakor was a consensus pick and how much he can motivate the party remains to be seen.

Opportunities: A 27-year incumbency is ripe for the picking and the party should be selling 'change' to the people. The BJP did drop seats the last time and Congress could look to build on that. The feel-good vibes of Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra could provide a fillip.

Threats: Pessimism and acceptance of defeat before the contest is a real threat. AAP is making a lot of noise and if it translates to even some minor success, it could most likely be at the cost of Congress.

AAP

Strengths: A new entrant, so it comes with no baggage in the state. Has something to talk about with its schools-hospitals message. Confidence will be high after the Punjab performance.

Weaknesses: Being new to the state, party organisation is negligible. Doesn't have a prominent local face to project and is too dependent on Arvind Kejriwal to pull in the votes. Its appeal is also likely to be centred around urban areas.

Opportunities: Can position itself as a pro-change agent for those who are tired of the BJP-Congress duopoly in the state.

Threats: Like its forays in Uttarakhand and Goa, could end up as the laughing stock. May well find out that the two national parties are too deeply entrenched in the state for a third force to make a dent.