NEW DELHI: The Gujarat election will be held in two phases on December 1 and 5. The votes will be counted on December 8 along with Himachal Pradesh that votes on November 12. Of the total 182 assembly seats in Gujarat, 89 constituencies will vote in the first phase, and the rest 93 in the second phase.
With the announcement of Gujarat Assembly poll schedule, all three major political parties in the fray - the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), opposition Congress and new entrant Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) - expressed confidence about winning the next month's elections.
The last time Gujarat witnessed a significant three-way contest was in 1990, when Janata Dal won 70 seats, BJP 67, and Congress 33. JD and BJP gained at Congress’ expense, largely due to their pre-poll alliance, smart seat sharing and initial signs of Hindutva consciousness that would soon become a standard feature of the polity.
In 2017, Gujarat voted the BJP to power but with a reduced majority — 99 seats, the lowest for a single-majority party since 1975. The Congress and its allies won 80 seats — their best showing since 1985, when it won a record 149 seats. The Congress, however, suffered a series of defections and subsequently, the BJP’s tally rose to 111. The Congress got reduced to 62.
But unlike 2017, the 2022 polls is a three-cornered fight, with the AAP trying to make inroads in Gujarat after its landslide victory in Punjab. The BJP, on the other hand, is looking to strengthen its firm grip on Gujarat, stretching its record of retaining power for 27 years.
Hardik Patel, who had led the Patidar stir for OBC quota, is in the BJP fold. So is Alpesh Thakor, who had amplified the anti-BJP chorus last time. Jignesh Mevani, who rose to prominence after the flogging of Dalits in Una, is reduced to a lone ranger.
Key players:Narendra Modi: As always, BJP’s poll outreach revolves around the PM whose popularity remains unassailable in Gujarat. He’s a oneman army who has already travelled to the state over a dozen times in the past three months – and this is just the beginning.
Amit Shah: Modi’s lieutenant on the ground and master of backroom strategies, Shah’s understanding of Gujarat is second only to the PM’s. His family lives in Ahmedabad, and he has never lost the feel of the state’s pulse. He will put 2017’s lessons to use to retain BJP’s strongest bastion.
Bhupendra Patel: A man with a clean image and the right caste – Patidars are BJP’s bulwark – Patel is on every poster and frame with Modi, who has talked up the ‘Narendra-Bhupendra double engine sarkar’ to stress the importance of Centre-state coordination.
Arvind Kejriwal: Armed with freebies, the disruptor is trying to lay siege to Modi’s fortress. The strategy has made AAP the third force alongside a subdued Congress. AAP has been relentless in its criticism of BJP over electricity, education and health, but will the build-up translate into votes?
Gopal Italia: One-time contractual police staffer Italia, and former journalist Isudan Gadhvi are fronting AAP in Gujarat. Italia, who is from the Patel community, shot to fame in 2015 by hurling a shoe at the then state home minister. He had joined hands with Hardik Patel during the Patidar stir. He’s in the news again for his statements targeting the PM and the PM’s mother.
Rahul Gandhi: He went all out in 2017, visiting temples and targeting Modi for “favouring” Adani and Ambani. Congress rode the wave of caste agitations to post its best-ever show since 1990, winning 77 seats. The mojo is curiously missing this time with RaGa focused on his Bharat Jodo Yatra and a listless Congress hardly making any noise.