KOLKATA: This is crunch time for West Bengal.
The onus of living up to the expectations of people who came out of the shadows, joined the rallies and so reclaimed their surrendered political freedom to choose their allegiance now rests with the unthinkable alliance of the Congress and the CPM-led Left Front and its secular democratic partners on the one hand and the Election Commission on the other. Boiled down to the basics, there are two questions: Will the Election Commission deliver on its promise of conducting free and fair polling in the most elaborate and expensive elections ever in West Bengal. Do the CPM and Congress have the organisation to man the polling booths, help people get there and cast their votes?
The apprehensions of voters and the larger public, tracking the progress of the polls is evident. The honest opinion in constituencies across south Bengal and in Kolkata is "the people have overcome their inhibitions and come out to join the alliance processions. Now what?"
After the first two days of polling, it was obvious that the EC's elaborate preparations to counter the very serious probability of intimidation, violence and inducement seems not to have worked as well as was promised. Over the next five dates for polling, either the very detailed arrangements will function with flawless efficiency or the glitches will confirm that voters are not free to choose in Bengal. If the EC and the opposition cannot get their acts together, the chances are that people will slip back into their corners and hope to minimise the retaliation that has been unequivocally announced by the Trinamool Congress leadership, as "there will be a reckoning once the EC departs". That may well happen even before the elections get over.
Public confidence in the CPM is not at its peak. It is the Congress that is positively adding to perceptions about the alliance as a credible challenge to the dominant Trinamool in many constituencies, transforming perceptions about the CPM and its winnability. The joint rallies, the combined operations in reopening party offices shut down by the Trinamool after 2011 confirm that the Congress is now necessary to the CPM as a force multiplier. This new role of the Congress has been loudly acknowledged at the ground level, however unwelcome that is to the more orthodox leaders and supporters at the ground level of the CPM, other Left parties and within the Congress.
Collaboration instead of competition is a novel experience for the CPM and the Congress. Voters of the Congress have transferred their votes to the Trinamool in several elections, including 2011, when the challenge was to defeat the CPM. Pundits of the Congress estimate that the Trinamool won an additional 50 seats because of the partnership. The expectation in 2016 is higher, but the idea is limited to sections of leaders in both parties. Where hard work is needed to bring about radical change in the mindset of Congress and Left voters, a process complicated by a history of hostility, the lukewarm efforts of constituency leaders in districts like Murshidabad, is creating tensions. It is making it difficult to ensure tactical voting, an unfamiliar idea for Congress-CPM voters. Failure to pull it off could mean the difference between giving a decent fight in constituencies like Behala East, where Kolkata's mayor Sovan Chatterjee, made famous by his association with the Saradha chit fund and the Narada sting videos is contesting or even Kamarhatty, where Madan Mitra, ex-minister now in jail is the candidate. In East Midnapore, Burdwan, Howrah and Hooghly, the patchy collaboration will hurt the Congress-CPM alliance on the one hand, benefit the BJP on the other and help the Trinamool.
In the next two weeks, the CPM needs to get its act together if it wants to get within sniffing distance of the winning line. It is contesting in more seats than the Congress and has a larger votebase, which means that the ball is in its court. It lacks a tactical road map, in many places the willingness and the commitment to consolidate votes that are likely to shift from the Trinamool, provided there is a reassurance that the change will produce a winner.