Predicted vote-share rise of TMC surprises opposition

CPM's Nilotpal Basu is also mystified by the vote-share arithmetic. "I fail to understand how Trinamool's vote share can go up amid strong anti-incumbency. It can only happen if the projected fall in BJP's vote share is added to Trinamool's account. As far as I understand this is not going to happen. The BJP vote share in 2014 was basically anti-Trinamool. There is no reason why this vote share will return to Trinamool," Basu said.

Congress' Manas Bhuiyan would rather wait for May 19. "There are many factors, swings and shifts in every election. But this election is unique. There are times when exit-poll predictions come out to be true and there are instances where they fail to gauge public pulse. Let us not split hairs on probability when the reality is not too far off," he said.

Trinamool leaders, on their part, attribute the rise in projected vote share to "Didi's good work". "It is quite possible. The credit goes to Didi's development work. Controversies over Narada, Saradha and syndicates had a limited effect on voters, particularly in urban pockets. Didi's development work prevailed over others and offset the negative campaign by the opposition," a Trinamool organiser said. But why is the party chief so silent? "It isn't because she lacks confidence. She is contemplating on the future course of the next government," the leader said.

Left workers, however, expect Trinamool to suffer reverses in its bastions - Kolkata, North 24-Parganas, South 24-Parganas - which together count for some 75 seats. "We will be doing well in the urban seats, much better than what we did in the 2011 assembly polls. We will win Shyampukur, Chowringhee, Beliaghata," a CPM organiser from Kolkata said. Trinamool leaders don't rule out losses in this belt, but the leaders believe they won't be too significant. They have their fingers crossed on Jadavpur, Kasba, Metiabruz and Bidhannagar. They still believe BJP's vote share, even after a fall of 3%, would divide the opposition vote and help Trinamool steer clear in many Kolkata seats.

The ruling party also hopes to cushion the reverses in north Bengal and "minor reverses" in Burdwan, Birbhum, Hooghly, Nadia and Pururlia with resounding leads in the two 24 Parganas and two Midnapores.