Peeves over lack of infra may swing urban mood

The Tamil Nadu assembly election has been easy to predict in the past. The norm every election has been that the ruling party is voted out.

The 2016 assembly election was predicted by pollsters to defy that trend. There was no palpable anti­government sentiment against the ruling AIADMK, and the DMK had failed to stitch together a strong alliance. But, as the campaign gathers momentum, voter disenchantment seems to be emerging in urban pockets that may turn the election into a tight contest.

There appears to be a mild shift in voter perception in cities. Dissatisfaction over the government's performance on infrastructure building and creating an industry-friendly ecosystem seems to have come into play .

Chief minister J Jayalalithaa has time and again sought to address this perception. She has reeled out statistics on the infrastructure projects she delivered and her government's contribution towards industry building. But boardrooms of business houses are not impressed, be it in Coimbatore or Chennai.

The AIADMK was voted to power with a super majority unlike the previous DMK government run with minority strength in the assembly. In the subsequent local body elections, too, the people solidly backed the AIADMK and the party came with a brute majority bagging most positions.“But very little has been done for infrastructure development and industrial growth in Coimbatore,'' said an industrialist from Coimbatore. The stalled elevated road project that would have enhanced Chennai port's connectivity is an example of how the government has not applied a growth-friendly mindset to projects.

The handling of the Chennai floods could well be one of the key drivers if the AIADMK loses its seats in the state capital. Union ministers' allegation that Jayalalithaa is inaccessible has found a strong echo among the urban educated class in cities.

This anti­government sentiment could not be compared to the wave against the DMK in 2011 when the party was in the middle of the 2G controversy .Urban areas were once considered pocket boroughs of the DMK. But the 2G wave swept away the DMK and gave urban constituencies to the AIADMK on a platter. With the anti­government sentiments building up, the DMK might be back in the reckoning in urban areas. “There is a mild shift happening against the Tamil Nadu government in urban areas. It is too early to term this churning as an anti­incumbency wave, but we could say that urban voters are increasingly feeling discomfort with the ruling party ,'' says political commentator Ram Manivannan.

Analysts say there are indications that this discomfort might grow in the coming days if not effectively countered.``There is grave silence among voters. This silence has typically been detrimental to the ruling party ,'' says poll analyst M Kasinathan.

While the common factors for an anti­-incumbency sentiment like absence of infrastructure development, lack of employment generation, and corruption were being raked up right from day one of the campaigning by opposition parties, analysts say certain other elements have come into play now.The death of AIADMK cadres who attended the Jayalalithaa's public meetings, apparently due to prolonged exposure to sun, has stoked anger among several quarters. “Seizure of crores of money from people allegedly associated with AIADMK leaders have contributed to the change in public mood in the last few days,'' says associate professor C Lakshmanan from Madras Institute of Development Studies. The moot question, however, is whether the grand old man of the DMK, M Karunanidhi, and his heir apparent, M K Stalin, will be able to capitalize on what appears to be a shift in urban areas. “We have to wait for the AIADMK manifesto which is slated to be unveiled early next week. There might be surprises which could alter the game,'' he says.