Jobs, Cauvery issue, anti-incumbency, floods to play deciding roles across TN

In west, AIADMK, DMK evenly poised

It would not be a cakewalk for chief minister J Jayalalithaa's party in the hitherto AIADMK heartland of western Tamil Nadu. AIADMK and its allies, which won 47 out of the 57 seats in Coimbatore, Erode, Salem, Tiruppur, Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri, Namakkal and Nilgiris districts in 2011 and continued its winning streak in the Lok Sabha and local body elections, is battling to retain votes this time. Both the major fronts are evenly poised. In the poultry hub of Namakkal, which again was an AIADMK hub, the ruling party has lost some ground while in the backward Dharmapuri and Krishanagiri districts, PMK would play spoilsport, leaving AIADMK in a tight spot.

If Jayalalithaa had to commence her campaign against the backdrop of accusations of governance paralysis, selection of candidates did no good to lift the morale of the cadres. If new faces like Amman K Arjunan, the candidate for Coimbatore South and Singai Muthu met with cold response from voters, veterans like education minister Palaniappan in Pappireddipatti had to face even harsher reactions from public. Jayalalithaa did visit western Tamil Nadu and made powerful speeches but DMK was more aggressive in its campaign with leader after leader from M K Stalin and Kanimozhi to general secretary K Anbazhagan addressing at least four or five places in every district.

“There are a number of young and neutral voters who are disappointed with AIADMK. This might help DMK. PWF splitting votes might go in favour of DMK in some segments,'' says PUCL state secretary S Balamurugan. Still, all is not gloom and doom for AIADMK. In Coimbatore, Salem and Erode, AIADMK is still on a strong wicket.

NORTH - In north, floods may shape verdictThe seven northern districts -Tiruvallur, Chennai, Kancheepuram, Vellore, Tiruvan namalai, Villupuram and Cuddalore -where 78 segments are up for grabs in the forthcoming assembly election are likely to see an outcome shaped by three key issues: jobs, water supply , and losses in agriculture. The government's handling of the December floods which affected four of the northern districts is another key factor which could shape the outcome.

This is a region, which is dominated by vanniyar, dalit and minority votes. “It is a traditional stronghold of DMK and has remained so even after MGR split the party. Whenever DMK has faced the election remaining out ofpower, it has secured a resounding victory by garnering a lion's share of the anti-establishment votes in the region,“ said analyst Raveenthiran Doraisamy.

The Chennai region, however, presen The Chennai region, however, presents a different picture with both major fronts looking strong. There are a few sure-shot winners. Chief minister J Jayalalithaa (R K Nagar) and her former cabinet colleague D Jayakumar (Royapuram) are expected to retain their seats for AIADMK. DMK treasurer M K Stalin (Kolathur), former mayor M Subramaniam (Saidapet) and P K Sekar Babu (Harbour) are also likely to emerge victorious.

In Ulundurpet, where Vijayakanth is contesting, and Kattumannarkoil where Thol Thirumavalavan is contesting, the PWF-DMDK front may score a couple of victories. The PMK is the dark horse in the race -with a committed base of vanniyars votes -but in a multi-cornered contest, it may find the going tough.