CHENNAI: In the run-up to the Tamil Nadu assembly election, four exit polls predicted a victory for the DMK-Congress alliance, while only one – the Times Now backed CVoter Survey – projected a victory for AIADMK.
Given that the AIADMK was leading in 126 constituencies versus the DMK-Congress leads of 104 as of 3.10 pm, according to the Election Commission's website, CVoter seems to have read its cards right.
In the 2011 state elections, CVoter's prediction was the closest to reality. The 2016 election makes it the third time in Tamil Nadu that CVoter's exit polls are starkly different from what other outlets predicted.
Early in the game, CVoter said it had spotted no big anti-incumbency wave, except in Chennai. The only positives for DMK-Congress would be in Chennai, said C-Voter, something which has proven true given the DMK's lead in Alandur, Anna Nagar, Avadi, Chengalpattu, Chepauk, Egmore, Harbour, Kolathur, Mathavaram, etc. CVoter also got it right with its prediction that the city's worst affected pockets from last December's floods will go the DMK way given trends seen in Adyar (Velachery constituency), Saidapet, Tambaram, Sholinganallur and elsewhere.
Exit polls in Tamil Nadu have always been a quick-changing landscape. Four agencies that traditionally polled in TN – CSDS, ORG, C-Fore and Nielsen – stayed away this time around. The four other exit polls that were in the fray in 2016 included a Hindi news channel and Axis-My Nation.
Rachel Chitra writes for the business section of The Times of Ind...
Read MoreRachel Chitra writes for the business section of The Times of India. She has been tracking the banking and insurance sector for nearly five years.
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