Voters in central Kerala keep both the fronts guessing

It is usually not hard to predict the electoral results of central Kerala belt, which has 23 seats from Kottayam and Thrissur alone.

Both districts have a large Christian population traditionally sympathetic towards UDF constituents that include Congress and Kerala Congress. But this time it may not be that easy, even for stalwarts like K M Mani who is contesting from Pala. The BDJS, more than the BJP, is seen as a key force in many constituencies.

Kottayam

A traditional UDF fort where the LDF has been trying to make inroads, the electoral performance of the NDA is likely to play a crucial role here, especially in constituencies like Poonjar, Ettumanoor, Kanjrappally and Pala.

In Poonjar, independent P C George and UDF candidate Georgekutty Augusthy have surged ahead, leaving LDF’s P C Joseph behind. In Pala, there is a close contest between KC(M) supremo K M Mani and Mani C Kappen of LDF. Both fronts are troubled by the presence of BJP's N Hari.

Ettumanoor looks unpredictable mainly because of the presence of the BDJS candidate A G Thankappan. LDF’s Suresh Kurup and UDF candidate Thomas Chazhikadan are exuding confidence, but the latter is troubled by the presence of rebel candidate Josemon Mundackal. Confusion prevails in Kanjirappally, where sitting MLA N Nayaraj of the UDF will have to sweat it out. BJP’s V N Manoj had an initial edge in campaign, which has now tapered off. Catholic votes will be decisive in this constituency.

It’s a neck-and-neck race between the UDF and LDF in Changanassery. The UDF is comfortable in Puthuppally, Kottayam and Kaduthuruthy, while the CPI is hopeful of retaining the Vaikom seat.

Idukki

Of the five constituencies in Idukki, P J Joseph of the UDF is comfortable in Thodupuzha. The presence of BDJS candidate Biju Madhavan is crucial in Idukki, where a close contest is on between Roshy Augustine of UDF and Francis George of LDF. In Peerumedu, Cyriac Thomas of the UDF is giving a tough fight to current MLA E S Bijimol. M M Mani of the LDF is ahead of Senapathy Venu of the UDF in Udumbanchola. The LDF is also hopeful of retaining the Devikulam seat.

Ernakulam

Though the district is known as a stronghold of the UDF, almost all constituencies are heading for tight contests this time because of the strong presence registered by the BJP.

In Tripunithura, the BJP had secured around 23,500 votes in the segment in the civic polls. Initially, the UDF was expected to have an easy walkover in constituencies like Kothamangalam, Muvattupuzha, Aluva, Kunnathunadu, Paravur, Thrikkakara, Kalamassery, Ernakulam and Kochi, but the situation has become unpredictable now though observers give the UDF a slight edge.

In Vypeen, the LDF is considered to be leading. In Angamaly, the UDF seems to have better prospects, though Piravom, where current MLA and minister Anoop Jacob is contesting, may swing to the Left.

Thrissur

Several constituencies in Thrissur will witness strong triangular contests, because of the strong presence of NDA. The LDF and UDF are claiming that they would win eight to 10 seats, while NDA campaign managers say they are strong in six of the 13 constituencies in the district.

The LDF is confident of winning in Kaipamangalam, Nattika, Puthukkad, Guruvayur, Chalakkudy, Chelakkara, Kunnamkulam and Manaloor. Front sources claim that the contest is tough in Kodungallur, Wadakkanchery, Thrissur, Ollur, and Irinjalakkuda.

The UDF has high hopes of winning all 10 constituencies except Kaipamangalam, Puthukkad and Nattika.