The cost of enforcement: Are frequent immigration arrests dragging down test scores for US students?

Frequent immigration arrests across the United States may be silently dampening academic performance and widening existing inequalities. A new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) suggests that intensified immigration enforcement, especially after the beginning of Donald Trump’s presidency, has had measurable effects on student learning outcomes, including among United States citizens from Spanish-speaking households.

A study linking policy and performance

The study, by economists David Figlio and Umut Özek, draws on data from a large, anonymised school district in Florida. By linking local immigration arrest records with standardised test results, the researchers were able to examine how heightened enforcement influenced academic achievement over time.

Their analysis shows modest but noticeable declines in spring test scores following increases in immigration arrests. While foreign-born students were expected to be affected, the decline extended to United States citizen students who lived in Spanish-speaking households, particularly in high-poverty schools and among those who were already academically vulnerable.

The researchers interpret this as evidence that the psychological and social effects of enforcement reach far beyond the individuals targeted, affecting entire communities subject to scrutiny and uncertainty.

Quantifying the learning loss

Florida students sit for state tests three times each academic year, allowing for precise tracking of performance before and after the escalation in enforcement. According to the NBER paper, each percentage point increase in immigration enforcement intensity corresponded to a decline in test scores equivalent to roughly 10 to 15 points on the Scholastic Assessment Test (SAT) scale.

This represents about 10% of the average test score gap between English- and Spanish-speaking students in the district. The data show that higher-performing Spanish-speaking students largely sustained their results, while lower-performing peers experienced sharper declines, suggesting that the burden of enforcement falls most heavily on those already struggling.

Beyond the classroom

The findings echo a broader body of research highlighting the collateral consequences of immigration policy. Previous studies have linked increased enforcement to heightened anxiety and school dropout rates, Chalkbeat reports. This new analysis extends that understanding, demonstrating the educational costs of what researchers describe as one of the most intensive periods of interior enforcement in recent history.

Interestingly, the Florida study also found a reduction in disciplinary incidents among Latino and Spanish-speaking students. It remains unclear whether this reflects students’ attempts to avoid attention, or whether educators responded more leniently in recognition of the heightened stress families were experiencing. Attendance rates, however, showed little change in this particular district.

A wider pattern emerges

Other recent studies provide complementary evidence. In California’s Central Valley, Stanford University professor Thomas Dee observed a 22% increase in daily absences in the two months following a major immigration raid, an abrupt departure from historical attendance patterns. The rise was most pronounced among younger children, as parents reportedly feared separation from them.

Similarly, research by Kirsten Slungaard Mumma at Columbia University’s Teachers College found that absences increased among English learners in both Connecticut and Rhode Island, suggesting that the effects of enforcement are neither localised nor temporary.

Communities under constant watch

While immigration enforcement has long been a feature of American policy, its intensity and proximity to daily life have changed. Federal agents have conducted raids in apartment complexes, near schools and childcare centres, sites previously considered off-limits. Officials insist that efforts are focused on violent offenders, but public records and investigations by media outlets such as ProPublica have shown that many of those detained have minor or no criminal records, and that even United States citizens have occasionally been held in error.

In such an environment, fear and uncertainty become part of the school experience. Families report staying indoors more often; children speak of disrupted concentration, sleeplessness and disengagement from class. For teachers, maintaining normalcy in classrooms overshadowed by anxiety has become an unspoken challenge.

Policy beyond punishment

Figlio and Özek emphasise that their study does not prescribe immigration policy. Instead, it highlights the need for schools to recognise and address the collateral effects of enforcement on learning. They argue that districts serving high proportions of immigrant and Spanish-speaking students may require additional resources and psychological support, not only for those directly affected by enforcement, but for entire school communities.

Education, they suggest, cannot be insulated from the broader political climate. When enforcement intensifies, it reverberates through households, hallways and test scores alike.
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