The Kremlin on Tuesday warned that the world was heading into a “dangerous” phase as the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia is set to expire this week, potentially leaving the two largest nuclear powers without any formal limits on their arsenals.
The treaty, known as New START, is due to expire on Thursday. It is the final surviving agreement from a series of Cold War-era arms control deals that once governed nuclear competition between Washington and Moscow.
“In just a few days, the world will be in a more dangerous position than it has ever been before,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists, including AFP, during a daily briefing.
The Kremlin said it had proposed a one-year extension of the treaty but had received no formal response from Washington. “We still haven't received a response from the Americans to this initiative,” Peskov said.
If the treaty lapses without replacement or extension, the United States and Russia would, for the first time in decades, be without any binding framework to limit or verify their strategic nuclear weapons. Moscow warned this would remove the only remaining mechanism to control the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals.
US President Donald Trump, who oversaw the withdrawal of the United States from several international agreements, said in September that extending New START “sounds like a good idea,” but no concrete steps have followed.
The treaty was signed in 2010 by then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and US President Barack Obama, and came into force the following year. It included provisions for on-site inspections and data exchanges to ensure compliance.
However, Russia suspended inspections during the COVID-19 pandemic, and broader talks on extending or replacing the treaty stalled as relations deteriorated following the war in Ukraine. Moscow has accused Washington of obstructing inspection missions on US territory.
In 2023, Russia announced it was freezing its participation in New START, although it said it would continue to voluntarily adhere to the numerical limits set by the treaty.
The warning comes amid rising military signalling on both sides. Moscow last year tested new nuclear-capable delivery systems without warheads, while Trump said he had ordered two US nuclear submarines to move closer to Russia.
What is the US-Russia nuclear treaty and why it matters
New START is the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia and is widely seen as a cornerstone of global strategic stability.
Under the agreement, both countries are limited to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads each. The treaty also caps deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and heavy bombers at 700, with an additional limit of 800 launchers. These weapons are designed to strike an adversary’s key political, military and industrial targets in the event of a nuclear conflict.
A central feature of New START is its verification regime, which allows for on-site inspections, notifications and data sharing to reduce the risk of miscalculation. While inspections have been halted since the pandemic and Russia’s suspension of participation, neither side has formally accused the other of breaching the warhead limits.
The treaty was extended once in 2021, shortly after Trump’s successor took office, as the agreement allows only a single extension. With that option exhausted, any further continuation would require a new deal or informal political understanding.
Analysts warn that the expiry of New START would end more than five decades of formal nuclear arms control between Washington and Moscow. Previous agreements, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty and the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty, have already collapsed.
Without a replacement framework, both sides would be free to expand their nuclear arsenals, though experts say large-scale increases would take time due to technical and logistical constraints. Over the longer term, the absence of limits and transparency could fuel a renewed arms race driven by worst-case assumptions.
Efforts to negotiate a successor treaty face major hurdles. Trump has said he wants a broader agreement that includes China, an idea Beijing has rejected, arguing its arsenal is far smaller. Russia has countered that the nuclear forces of Britain and France should also be included, a proposal those countries oppose.
With New START nearing expiration and no clear diplomatic breakthrough in sight, the future of US-Russia nuclear arms control remains uncertain, raising concerns about rising nuclear risks at a time of heightened global tensions.
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