As the United States and Israel signal that their military campaign against Iran could last weeks, a retired Indian Army officer has challenged predictions of a swift victory, warning that the conflict may drag on far longer than many expect.
Colonel Bhaskar
Sarkar, VSM (Retd), has publicly disagreed with claims by US President Donald Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and several defence analysts that the current Middle East war will end quickly.
"It is amusing to see President Trump, Benjamin Netneyahu and many defence experts both Indian and Western predict a quick end to the current Middle East War. I would beg to differ," he wrote.
His remarks come as US and Israeli forces continue airstrikes across Iran, while Tehran and its regional allies retaliate with missile and drone attacks targeting Israel and US-linked assets in Gulf states.
Iranian regime intact despite leadership lossesColonel Sarkar pointed out that Israel’s initial strikes inflicted heavy damage on Iran’s leadership but did not bring down the regime.
"Israel killed 40 Iranian Leaders in the first minute of strike. But the Iranian Regime has not collapsed. It has hit back quite effectively."
He argued that the ability of Iran to respond militarily indicates that the conflict is unlikely to conclude rapidly.
The conflict began with coordinated US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, command centres and leadership compounds. In response, Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones across the region, escalating hostilities.
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Lessons from Gaza and past US warsDrawing comparisons with Israel’s ongoing campaign in Gaza, Sarkar questioned the assumption that Iran could be subdued within weeks.
"Israel could not finish Hamas in two years, how can they, even with US support, finish Iran in a few weeks."
He also reflected on US military history over the past eight decades.
"In the 80 odd years since 1946, the US has fought many wars but won only one against Saddam Hussain. One cannot compare Iraq’s army with Iran’s. Two divisions of Iraq army stationed at Mosul bolted when attacked by one ISI battalion. Iraq is a Shia nation. Shia religion started with the martyrdom of Hussain and Hussan, the sons of Ali at the battle of Karbala. The day is remembered every year around the world by Moharram. Shias will not surrender. They will rather die."
His comments suggest that ideological and religious motivations could harden resistance within Iran, making a decisive military outcome difficult.
Potential external support for IranSarkar further argued that Iran is unlikely to be isolated in a prolonged conflict, drawing parallels with the war in Ukraine.
"Russia could not defeat Ukraine because it was resupplied with weapons and funds by the NATO. Iran will be resupplied with weapons by Russia, China and Noth Korea who would be happy to see the US run out of money and weapon systems."
Western officials have not confirmed any such resupply efforts, but the geopolitical alignments in recent years have deepened ties between Tehran and Moscow, as well as Beijing.
Air power alone cannot decide warOne of Sarkar’s central arguments concerns the limits of air campaigns.
"No war has eve been won from the air. You need boot on ground. You need soldiers ready to die. The US, and its Arab Allies have none. Israel does not have enough."
So far, US and Israeli operations have relied heavily on air and missile strikes. President Trump has indicated that “boots on the ground” are not ruled out, but no formal deployment of large-scale ground forces has been announced.
Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has said the conflict would not become “endless,” while Trump has stated that the United States has the capability to sustain operations beyond initial timelines.
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War duration and domestic pressureTrump initially suggested that the campaign could conclude within days before revising estimates to weeks. Speaking at the White House, he said the US had projected “four to five weeks” but could continue longer if necessary.
Sarkar offered a starkly different outlook. "Trump started by saying he will end war in 4 to 5 days. He has revised it to 4 to 5 weeks. I say the War will end only when the US and Israel will run out of ammunition and popular support for an unjust war. UAE will suffer the most at the hands of Iran because they have been providing support for covert anti-Iran operations by CIA and Mossad. So, get ready for a long war."
Energy markets have already reacted sharply to the conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil supply passes, has faced disruptions, pushing up crude prices and fuelling fears of prolonged instability.
Washington has urged its citizens to depart from several Middle Eastern countries due to security risks, while regional governments brace for further escalation.
India’s stance questionedColonel Sarkar criticised what he sees as India’s muted response to the killing of Iran’s leadership during ongoing negotiations.
"I feel sad that India has not condemned the assassination of the Iranian President by a missile strike while negotiations were on. Would it be all right if Pakistan or China assassinated our beloved PM without declaring war or hostilities? Is killing or kidnapping presidents the new normal in international politics?"
New Delhi has not formally commented on his remarks. India has traditionally maintained strategic relations with both Western nations and Iran, balancing energy interests with diplomatic ties.
A war with uncertain endWhile US and Israeli officials describe their campaign as targeted and time-bound, critics like Colonel Sarkar warn that historical precedents suggest otherwise. With airstrikes continuing, retaliatory attacks intensifying and global powers watching closely, the duration and outcome of the conflict remain uncertain.
As rockets continue to fly across the region and global markets respond to each development, the question of how long the present Middle East war will last remains unanswered. For now, predictions of a quick end are contested by those who see deeper structural and geopolitical forces at play.