An unpredictable contest on the cards

Pathanamthitta: Politics alone will not determine the winner in

Konni

as caste equations too will play a crucial role. Ezhava and Christian votes will be the deciding factor as they dominate the vote share in the constituency. This was the reason why political leaders and candidates are meeting community leaders during their campaign.

In the previous Lok Sabha election (2019) vote difference between the three political parties was marginal. The Congress candidate could only secure a lead of 3,161 over his CPM rival. The difference between CPM and BJP candidates was just 440 votes.

All three candidates are banking on this equation to secure a win. In terms of confidence, Congress party is on the back foot as the dispute over candidate selection is still an issue within the party and it has affected bypoll campaign. By keeping away from campaign conclusion event on Saturday evening, ex-MLA and Attingal MP Adoor Prakash gave a rude shock to the local Congress leadership at the last minute.

Though P Mohanraj is a known face, he is not getting the support Prakash received from party men. Prakash, who has been representing the constituency since 1996, had registered five consecutive wins here. This was the reason why KPCC chose him to lead the campaign. However, Congress leadership feels that Mohanraj’s seniority and the support he enjoys from top leadership will help him win with a slender margin.

For CPM, this is the best chance to wrest back the seat from UDF. Their biggest advantage is that Prakash is not in the fray. For KU Jenish Kumar, the votes secured by Veena George in 2019 LS election here is a morale booster. If a sizeable share of Ezhava and Christian vote bank favours him,

LDF

feels that it can upset

UDF

here.

In the constituency, winning over Ezhava (31%) and Christian (28%) communities are critical for victory. Among Christian communities, 10% of the vote share is held by Orthodox faction. BJP is eyeing to split the major vote banks. BJP’s K Surendran is banking on the support of BDJS and Orthodox faction.

BJP has opted for a different campaign technique in Konni. Instead of road shows and big rallies, it is concentrating on squad works and family meetings. Surendran feels RSS and a section of NSS will support him.

Though BJP and Congress have taken up Sabarimala women entry issue once again, their party leadership know that it has become a non-issue here. This is the reason why UDF and BJP are not talking about Sabarimala when they seek votes here.