Rapid land use changes impacting weather forecasts: IITM director

Pune: Rapid shifts in land use and land cover have become critical factors in weather and climate prediction, A.S. Rao, director, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), said. "To address this, IITM is working to incorporate dynamical vegetation models and vertical land models to better represent constant land-use changes in its forecasting systems," he said.
Rao, alongside R.P. Singh, director, Indian Institute of Remote Sensing (IIRS), highlighted the need for a multidisciplinary approach to climate change and urbanisation during the inaugural function of the National Conference on Geospatial Technologies and Sustainable Landscapes. The event was organised by the department of geography at Savitribai Phule Pune University (SPPU). According to Rao, traditional land-use maps used for predictions were once updated only every decade or two. However, rapid urbanisation now causes parameters to change almost daily. "We are integrating dynamical vegetation and vertical land models so that these shifts are accurately represented in our weather and climate forecasts," Rao said. He also emphasised that technology must be harnessed for environmental betterment, noting that the adoption of electric vehicles could significantly reduce ecological stress. IITM is also leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to process vast amounts of data. While the institute began 64 years ago with a single facility, it now boasts a nationwide network of instruments. "We are now monitoring vertical profiles of wind, humidity, and temperature — data we didn't have access to previously," Rao said. These AI-ML technologies are further being used to achieve "hyperlocal" forecasts. "Our recently launched system provides forecasts at a resolution of 6 to 6.5 km. We are currently working to reduce this area further to provide even more localised data," he added. R.P. Singh, whose work involves designing satellite instruments to observe Earth and other planetary bodies, warned that a global population of 8 to 9 billion is placing unprecedented pressure on the planet. "Demographic pressure is fundamentally changing Earth's landscape. We are accelerating the natural process of planetary change by producing high levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols, and by transforming land artificially," Singh said. Drawing a sobering comparison, he questioned whether Earth could face a fate similar to Mars in the distant future if these trends continue. Singh asserted that the most effective way to manage this crisis is through rigorous observation followed by predictive modelling. "India already has more than 50 satellites conducting surveillance of the Earth," Singh said, adding that observation is the foundational step toward sustainability. The conference coincides with the 75th anniversary of SPPU's geography department. Amit Dhorde, head of the department, noted that a series of commemorative events have been planned throughout the year to mark the milestone.