Moderate rain in store for city over next five days

PUNE: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast moderate spells of rain for Pune in the coming week.

"The city will receive a modest spell of showers in the next five days and the temperatures will remain between 29 and 21 degrees," an IMD official said.

The country, as a whole, has received 733.7mm rainfall till September 7 in the season. There is a 4% deficit as against the Long Period Average (LPA).

The season's total rainfall, from June 1 till date, is 514.7mm and IMD officials are certain that the city will continue to get good rainfall even during the Ganapati festival.

Due to development of a weather system, rainfall activity is likely to increase after September 12 over several parts of central and adjoining north peninsular India. "Heavy rainfall has been forecast over Vidarbha and Marathwada on September11, 12 and 13," said an official.

As of now, a cyclonic circulation over southwest

Madhya Pradesh

and adjoining areas of

Gujarat

will cause rainfall in the northern areas of central Maharashtra. An additional cyclonic circulation over central Bay of Bengal might intensify into a low-pressure area and move in the northwest direction causing increased rainfall activity over Vidarbha and Marathwada, the official explained.

The reason for a nationwide deficit in southwest monsoon showers this year has been the absence of La Nina, which is yet to develop. It usually causes excess cooling over the

Pacific Ocean

and is known to positively shape southwest monsoon over India. Two other factors that aid monsoon over the country are Indian Ocean Dipole and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). These have not been favourable for India, so far.

Meanwhile, according to IMD officials monsoon retreat is said to begin from mid-September from north-western parts of the country. The normal date of monsoon withdrawal from India is September 1. Monsoon retreat is declared when reduced rainfall activity is recorded in the north-west regions of the country coupled with the formation of anticyclonic conditions.

"Fresh systems developing from western disturbances over north India will continue bringing moisture to most parts of the country, due to which monsoon retrieval is not in sight for another ten days, easily," said an IMD official.

Weather experts suggest a late withdrawal leads to an extended monsoon but that may not necessarily mean more rainfall.EOM