Back-to-back dry days on the rise, says study

PUNE: The ongoing lull in this monsoon has more to it than meets the eye.

A recent

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

(IITM) report on

climate change

over India has indicated a significant increase in

back-to-back dry days

. It also pointed a significant decrease in the total number of consecutive wet days over the core

monsoon region

of north-central India during the last 65 years.

The report stated that the number of consecutive dry days over the region has shown an increase by about four in the last 65 years (1951-2015). At the same time, the number of consecutive wet days has shown a significant decrease of about 10 during this period.

IITM scientist Ashwini Kulkarni, one of the lead-authors of the report, told TOI that during the last six decades, there is a slight decrease in all-India rainfall. “However, we do not see rainfall reducing significantly in the country as a whole because the heavy-rainfall events have increased over the years. However, prolonged monsoon break spells appear to be more frequent during the last 65 years,” he said.

The IITM report said moderate rainfall over the core monsoon region showed a significant decreasing trend over the 65-year period by approximately 10%.

Meanwhile, annual as well as seasonal (June through September) rainfall over India has showed significant decreasing trend over the core monsoon zone, north-eastern parts and southern parts of west coast during the last 65 years.

Another IITM scientist involved in a part of the report analysis said rainfall over central India and west coast has significantly decreased over the last few decades. “The weakening has been partly due to the warming over the Indian Ocean and changes in land-use and land-cover,” he added.


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