181 Maha blocks highly vulnerable to agri stress as El Nino threat looms over kharif season

Pune: More than half (181) of Maharashtra’s total 353 blocks are highly vulnerable to low rainfall and the resulting farming distress, particularly in western Maharashtra and Marathwada, during deficient monsoon years, showed the findings of the “Anticipatory Action and Response Plan for Maharashtra”, a localised disaster management framework aimed at safeguarding vulnerable communities, especially farmers, from extreme weather events.

The report gains significance as the state heads into the kharif season amid El Nino concerns. It suggested that farmers in rain-deficient areas like Marathwada should grow drought-resistant crops like millets (bajra, jowar and ragi), and pulses to reduce risks. It also recommended setting up village-level fodder banks to help during droughts and avoid selling livestock in distress.

IITM director Suryachandra A Rao said the report was an early step towards giving farmers timely and useful information to improve productivity and reduce risk. “The report highlights the potential of combining advances in monsoon forecast, climate science and artificial intelligence to build climate-resilient agriculture. While this is an early-stage effort, it represents an important step toward a future where climate forecasts are translated into timely, actionable decisions that help farmers manage risk, improve productivity and strengthen resilience in an increasingly variable climate,” Rao said.

According to the report, El Nino tends to makes dry regions even drier. In normal years, 41 blocks receive less than 500mm rainfall, but this rises to 65 during El Nino years, the report showed, categorising crops like cotton, maize and soybean as most affected. “Erratic rainfall, long dry spells and uneven rain distribution are the main causes of farming stress during El Nino years, especially during key crop growth periods,” it stated.

State agriculture officials, however, said preparedness measures were under way. Agriculture commissioner Suraj Mandhare said, “We have integrated IITM’s high-resolution ‘Bharat Forecast System’ into our emergency operations centre for three-hourly, block-level weather updates to the farmers on their cellphones. We are already promoting short-duration, drought-resilient crops specifically pulses and millets across 181 high-vulnerability blocks to mitigate moisture stress.”

He said they were also encouraging the use of irrigation tools like drip systems and rain guns, and improving water storage by desilting water bodies. The MahaVISTAAR-AI platform is being used to send real-time sowing advice to farmers in different languages, Mandhare said.

A block is a decentralised, sub-district administrative division used specifically for planning, implementing and monitoring grassroots rural development programmes. It serves as the bridge between district-level govt authorities and village-level governing bodies. The report divides the blocks into three groups — 181 highly vulnerable, 78 moderately vulnerable and 94 low-risk. It also stated that during El Nino years, crop losses mainly happened because less land was cultivated, not because yields drop. For kharif season this year, rainfall was likely to be below normal, especially in Marathwada, central and western Maharashtra, with the worst impact expected in Aug and Sept.

“The 181 blocks identified in the report as highly vulnerable were selected based on historical IMD data and our seasonal forecasts. We held a meeting chaired by the CM in Feb, followed by another meeting last month to review preparedness for the kharif season. Since our seasonal forecast indicates below-normal rainfall, all departments have already begun taking appropriate measures. The priority is water conservation and ensuring that water-intensive crops are not sown,” OP Sreejith, head, climate monitoring and prediction group, IMD, said.

The report stated that drought-resistant crops like jowar, bajra and ragi showed less production losses (5-13%) compared to crops like cotton and soybean. Harihar Kausadikar of Vasantrao Naik Marathwada Agriculture University, Parbhani, advised farmers to avoid water-heavy crops like cotton, soybean and sugar cane, and instead grow millets and pulses. “Cotton, soybean and sugar cane are major crops in Marathwada despite water scarcity. We have been advising farmers in the region to not opt for these water-intensive crops and instead go for millets and pulses considering the possibility of less rainfall this year. And growing millets is also good for the livestock as it can act as fodder which is another concern during lean years,” Kausadikar said.

Sunil Malusare, vice-president of the All India Kisan Sabha, Maharashtra, however, said much more was needed to be done by the agriculture department. “The messages do come but they don’t come to everyone. Mostly it is beneficial to the rich farmer with good phones that have recharges, have network etc, not to the marginal farmer who works in the fields. Secondly, their ground staff needs to work much more. They conduct awareness sessions only in areas near their office or in certain places but without any guidance, most farmers end up taking decisions based on their own experience. At the moment, some farmers have prepared the fields, some are waiting for the rain alerts to prepare the fields. If it doesn’t rain, life is going to be extremely tough for the farmers in this state and country and we are not prepared for it,” said Malusare.

The report was prepared by the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, Hyderabad, ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad, International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India Meteorological Department and ministry of earth sciences, in collaboration with Maharashtra universities. It was released last month.