New sighting: The extinct floating votes!

PATNA: For almost a decade and a halfnow, elections in Bihar have been broadly predictable. You were almost sure todeduce, through some numerical permutations and caste combinations, as to whohad a better chance of winning. The voter always went by casteconsiderations and it only boiled down to polling day turnouts and boothmanagement, which in Bihar, assumes completely sinisterconnotations.But with the first phase of polling just under a weekaway, Lalu Prasad does not look too sure of his Muslim-Yadav base, the Congresshas no clue about which sections could vote for it, the BJP-JD(U) combo sees itssupport among the middle classes and upper castes getting sharply eroded and RamVilas Paswan watches helplessly as Mayawati nibbles away at his Dalitfiefdom.While other states have become accustomed to the concept offloating votes, which decide the direction only at the last moment, this isBihar’s brush with this phenomenon after a long phase of predictablepolarisation. Obviously, the adhesive with which politicians bondedtheir vote banks by playing one against the other, is cracking at itsseams.If a section of Muslims is already showing centrifugaltendencies to break away from Lalu’s patronship, without having reallydecided about other political options, the vast middle class in urban Biharfinds that the BJP is a rather weak foil for the RJD’s rampaging musclepower. Paswan has perhaps won over some upper caste goons to hisside precisely with the intention of giving the hapless middle-class that senseof security.Be it Rajputs, Muslims, Yadavs, Bhumihars, Brahmins orDalits, a slice from each of these chunks is up for grabs. And the main reason is thestrain that various socio-political formations have had to undergo in the last15 years. “Why should we not ponder over and think twicebefore we jump again to support the M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) alliance which we knowhas been created to mislead us,� says Ali Anwar of All India PasmandaMuslim Mahaz, an organisation of Dalit Muslims which says Lalu Prasad hasfavoured only Muslims from the elitist class.“Things are in aflux and new alliances are emerging after a long gap, some years back nobodywould have imagined the Bhumihars would ever side with Lalu but it is allhappening today,� admits Akhilesh Prasad Singh, a Union minister from theRJD stable. Lalu’s close allies confide that the M-Y alliance is alsobreaking up at places where the opposition has put up a Yadav candidate and theRJD nominee is not a Yadav or a Muslim.Dr S Narayan, a well-knownsociologist working with the A N Sinha Institute of Social Studies, feels theconcept of “committed vote� is under attack. “Thishappening in both the urban and rural areas of Bihar because voters are feelingless strongly about their party affiliations�, he says. Itdoes appear that there is a breach in the vault of Bihar’s vote bank. Inany case, cynics would say, no bank in Bihar is really secure.