Wind, solar to drive 2/3rd of India’s power growth in 10 years

Nagpur: Two-thirds of India’s power generation growth in the next 10 years will come from solar and wind if the country achieves its national renewable targets.

According to researchers at global energy think tank Ember, India needs to ramp up its annual solar capacity additions by 36% every year to make sure that it is on track of its 2027 targets. “Solar power transitioned from the formative phase in 2017, reaching a 1% share in the country’s power mix. If India achieves its solar targets set out in the 14th National Electricity Plan (NEP14), the share is expected to increase five-fold — from 5% to 25% in 2022-2032 period — marking a period of accelerating growth,” the latest analysis stated.

Researchers added that the country’s power generation growth, predominantly driven by coal in the last decade, could enter a stage with most of its power expansion over the next 10 years driven by solar and wind. “India’s electricity supply landscape is projected to change quite significantly in the next decade or so, with solar and wind likely to drive the growth in power generation,” said Neshwin Rodrigues, Ember’s India electricity policy analyst.

As solar adoption widens, there is also a growing need for a much higher level of storage capacity to be able to manage peak demand in the evenings and early mornings, underscored by recent power shortages. “Given their variable nature, a significant increase in storage capacity is crucial to balance generation and demand,” said Rodrigues.

The analysis also stressed that with solar now playing a bigger role in meeting the country’s peak demand, building grid flexibility and storage is now more crucial than ever to avoid shortages in the evenings and early mornings. “A set-up of providing dispatchable solar power with storage capacity is likely to be more cost-competitive than building new coal plants as India accelerates its transition to renewables,” it stated.

With the country scaling up investments in renewable energy, the government now plans to tender 50 gigawatt (GW) of solar and wind capacity per year in the following five financial years.

However, researchers stated that this will not be enough to achieve the ambitious NEP14 targets. “India needs to increase its current annual solar capacity addition by about 36% each year leading up to 2026-27. This means that the country would need to commission at least 17.5 GW in 2024, with a further ramp-up to 41 GW by the 2027 target year,” they said.