Maharashtra jolt to NDA, big boost for INDIA bloc

MUMBAI: In the 2019 polls, Maharashtra, which sends the second highest number of MPs to the Lok Sabha in the country, played a key role in PM Modi's victory with the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance winning 41 of the state's 48 seats. But in Verdict 2024, the state has delivered a major blow to the NDA. The opposition-led Maha Vikas Aghadi dominated the state with leads or victories in 30 seats, leaving the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance trailing far behind with leads or wins in just 17 seats. Vishal Patil, the Congress rebel who won from Sangli as an independent, is also expected to add to MVA's numbers.

This is the outcome despite the BJP-triggered split of two regional parties-Shiv Sena and NCP-with the aim of fracturing the opposition and raising its own numbers. Instead, this consolidated the opposition vote, with Congress being the biggest beneficiary. Congress replaced BJP as the single largest party in the state with leads or victories in 13 seats. This was a dramatic turnaround from its historic low of winning just one seat in 2019.

Responding to the results, Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray said the INDIA bloc should stake claim to form the govt at the Centre. "We will be meeting tomorrow (Wednesday) to discuss this. It's not as if BJP has not harassed Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu who are currently with NDA."

Within Mahayuti, BJP's tally plunged from 23 seats in 2019 to leads or wins in just 9 seats. Shinde's Sena led or won in 7 seats and Ajit Pawar's NCP had to settle for a single seat. Union ministers including Raosaheb Danve (Jalna) and Bharti Pawar (Dindori) were routed and state minister Sudhir Mungantiwar lost from Chandrapur.

Within the MVA, Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT) bagged or led in 9 seats and NCP (SP) led in or won 8 seats. Both parties won more seats than the parties that split from them. In Baramati, the most keenly watched contest in the state, Sharad Pawar's daughter Supriya Suledefeated Ajit Pawar's wife, Sunetra Pawar.

Observers said it's clear that Mahayuti's strategy of relying on PM Modi's appeal did not deliver results. On the contrary, 'Operation Lotus' boomeranged and generated sympathy for Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. Indeed, allying with Ajit Pawar who BJP had strongly targeted during the irrigation scam may have upset the party's core voters.

Also, Modi's statements about appeasement of Muslims during his Lok Sabha poll campaign, his reference to Sharad Pawar as "bhatakti aatma (wandering soul)" and Shiv Sena (UBT) as "nakli Sena" seem to have backfired.

Price rise, unemployment, agrarian distress and the opposition's message that the Constitution would be changed to scrap the SC quota if Modi came back to office were among the macro factors that impacted the results. The Maratha agitation similarly cost the Mahayuti, especially in its epicentre, Marathwada.

Experts said the consolidation of Muslim and Dalit votes helped the MVA. "The youth face unemployment, farmers are upset with Centre's policies and these sections went against Mahayuti. Muslims and Dalits consolidated in favour of the MVA," said an NCP functionary.

The Lok Sabha results will have implications for the state assembly polls which are six months away.

How did the two Senas perform? The Shiv Sena UBT led in 9 seats, just two more than Shinde's Shiv Sena. However, it had also contested 21 seats compared to Shinde's 15. Thackeray's strike rate for victory was 43% compared to Shinde's 47%. But Thackeray dominated in Mumbai, winning two seats compared to one claimed by Shinde in the three contests between the parties in the city. However, in the Thane region, Shinde's party wrested both the seats it contested against Sena (UBT).

In the Konkan belt which has been a stronghold of the Thackeray family, Sena (UBT) lost both seats. Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg was claimed by Uddhav Thackeray's bete-noire, former CM Narayan Rane. This is the first time BJP has won a seat in the Konkan region.

Within the NCP factions, Sharad Pawar's party dominated with leads in 8 seats and a victory in its citadel, Baramati. Ajit Pawar had to console himself with a single victory in Raigad for sitting MP Sunil Tatkare. Pawar Sr had contested 10 seats and had a strike rate of 80%. Ajit Pawar's party contested 4 seats and had a strike rate of 25%.

Congress contested 17 seats and led in 13, leading to a strike rate of 76%. "MVA allies worked together and supported each other, down to booth level. This is what worked for us," said Congress's Prithviraj Chavan.

Meanwhile, BJP which won 9 of 28 seats contested, had a strike rate of 32%. It suffered a major setback in the Vidarbha region from where deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis hails, as its tally fell from 5 seats in 2019 to just 2.

The party did not win a single seat in Marathwada, the heart of the Maratha quota agitation, which has also been impacted by a fierce drought.

BJP's numbers also declined in its bastion North Maharashtra where the Centre's export quota ban on onions, the main crop in the region, became a poll issue. Its seats here fell from 3 to 1. BJP's tally also fell from 4 to 1 in Western Maharashtra and 3 to 1 in Mumbai.

Responding to the verdict, Thackeray said, "This is a victory of democracy. The PM should have held more rallies. The BJP lost in locations where he campaigned."

Fadnavis tweeted, "The unfortunate outcome of the results is that the opposition attempted to win the seats through its propaganda that we would change the Constitution. But in elections, the people's mandate has to be accepted as it is."


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