Did Congress's solo run hurt chances of Thackerays in BMC polls? Data shows vote-split may have swung 26 seats in Mahayuti's lap

MUMBAI: The decision of Congress to contest separately in the BMC polls may have caused losses for the alliance of Raj and Uddhav Thackeray in at least 26 seats, with the vote-splitting benefiting BJP-Shiv Sena candidates. The vote fragmentation may have helped BJP gain 20 seats and Shiv Sena win 6 seats, data shows, assuming votes had got transferred among the opposition parties.

Among the gainers was ex-Shiv Sena MLA Yamini Jadhav, who won from ward 209 in Byculla. She polled 7,974 votes. However, combined votes of the candidates of the Congress and Raj Thackeray's MNS were higher at 8,641.




The BJP's Akash Purohit, son of senior politician Raj Purohit, won his second term as corporator from ward 221 (Bhuleshwar). He got 6,178 votes. However, candidates of the Congress and Uddhav Thackeray's Sena (UBT) jointly got 8,828 votes.

In some wards, the gap between the two was large. For instance, BJP's Banderi Tipanna won from ward 65 after polling 8,328 votes. The combined votes of the UBT Sena and Congress candidates were 13,406. The gap was 5,078 votes. This indicates that if they had a joint candidate, they had high chances of winning the seat.

In the BMC polls, the UBT Sena won 65 seats and MNS won 6, taking the number of the alliance to 71. The Mahayuti won 118 seats, four over the half-way mark. The BJP got 89 seats and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena got 29. The Congress won 24 seats, lower than its 2017 tally of 31.

The gap between the two alliances is perhaps too large to speculate on whether the entry of Congress would have helped the opposition win the polls. However, UBT Sena politicians said the dynamics of Congress entering the alliance would have benefited both Congress and the UBT Sena. "There is no doubt both Sena (UBT) and the Congress would have benefited if it had joined the alliance," said ex-mayor and UBT Sena corporator Kishori Pednekar.