UP heading to early Assembly elections in wake of Census 2027?

Lucknow: Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and four other states — Punjab, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur — scheduled for the first quarter of 2027 may be advanced because of the ongoing Census exercise in the country.The previous two Assembly elections in these five states were held between Feb and March. In 2022, elections took place between Feb 10 and March 7, while in 2017 they were conducted between Feb 11 and March 8.The second phase of Census 2027 involving population enumeration is scheduled to begin in Feb 2027, raising the possibility of a clash with the election schedule if the earlier pattern is followed.Sources in the Census department told TOI that the Election Commission of India has been informed about Phase II of Census 2027. Census officials said the final decision on the poll schedule would rest with the ECI.Officials pointed out that both the Census exercise and elections require the active involvement of district collectors and a large number of govt employees, making it difficult for the two exercises to run simultaneously. “Both Census Phase II and Assembly elections cannot be conducted together,” said an official.Since election dates are decided after taking into account factors such as weather conditions, examinations and major festivals, the ECI may have to advance the election schedule and attempt to complete polling in all five states before Feb.Officials in the UP chief electoral officer’s office, however, said no communication regarding any revised election schedule has been received so far and preparations are continuing as per the normal timeline.Constitutional expert and senior lawyer Anupam Mehrotra told TOI: “The proviso to Sub-section (2) of Section 15 of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, states that where a general election is held otherwise than on the dissolution of the existing Legislative Assembly, no notification shall be issued earlier than six months prior to the expiry of the Assembly’s term.”Explaining the provision, Mehrotra said that if the ECI decides to advance the elections, the notification can be issued only within six months of the expiry of the respective Assembly’s tenure.Samajwadi Party member Udaiveer Singh said they are prepared for elections whenever they are held. He alleged that speculation for early elections was emerging from the BJP camp because its many MLAs fear losing their seats.Responding to the charge, BJP’s Avinish Tyagi said was always election-ready, irrespective of the schedule. “We are always on the ground and among the people, unlike others. Why will we be afraid?” Tyagi said.