Show of strength may not guarantee mandate

LUCKNOW: It is rally time in UP. In fact, the season for mega rallies in the state has not only begun, it has already started a competition among rival political parties. Bigger the rally, the better it is politically.
Political rallies organised in UP are proving to be no less significant than the assembly polls being held in five states. All major political parties are up in arms to make their individual rally a success and this has virtually made UP a hinterland for a show of strength.As for security reasons, these rallies are indeed a big challenge, says a senior state official. He said further that the way political parties are clamouring for the rallies, it seems the challenge will multiply manifold in time to come.
The sudden idea of holding these rallies is attributed to two factors. First, UP is considered a key to power in Delhi simply because it has 80, the highest number, of Lok Sabha seats and secondly it is too big in size to be covered in one go. So most political parties are keen to have at least the first round of their rallies before the notification is issued for the Lok Sabha poll. Apart from this, the rallies being held after the poll notification will bring the political parties under scrutiny by the Election Commission for poll expenditure. So, by organising these rallies before the notification will give a kind of immunity to the political parties for inquiry about the expenditure incurred on rallies by them.
In the Samajwadi Party-ruled UP, the hornet's nest is already stirred by the BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, who had so far held two rallies at Kanpur and Jhansi. As for the attendance, these rallies were described as not only a big crowd puller, but also on the hit list of terrorists, following a series of bomb blasts in his Patna rally at the sprawling Gandhi Maidan. Adding to the worry of the state administration is the IB alert that has sought to beef up the security.
The next rally scheduled to be addressed by Modi is at Agra on November 21. But apart from them, the BJP has planned five more rallies by Modi in the state. They are in addition to that of 40 big political meetings by clubbing two Lok Sabha seats in the state.
Even Congress is serious about its rallies. In spite of assembly polls in five states, Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi has so far addressed four rallies in UP . These include Aligahr and Rampur on October 9 and Salempur and Bundelkhand on October 30.
In the same vein, the ruling Samajwadi Party too has thrown its hat in the ring. The party made its presence felt by holding an impressive rally at Azamgarh on October 29. The rally was addressed jointly by Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav and chief minister Akhilesh Yadav along with other party leaders. Happy at the outcome of the rally, Mulayam said: " I was overwhelmed with the number of people turning up for the rally. As far as the eyes could see, I could see only people," a visibly happy Mulayam said, adding that this proved the party had its connect at grassroots and its popularity had grown.
So was the case with Thursday's rally held at Mainpuri, which is stronghold of the Samajwadi Party. This rally drew huge crowds too and was described by the party as a proof of unflinching support of people towards it.
On the Contrary, the Congress is said to be upset by the poor show of Rahul Gandhi's rallies. The issue is being taken up by the party and it is said that the party's general security and in charge of the state, Madhusudan Mistry has called a review meeting of all zones here on November 9. The party, it is said, has advised Rahul Gandhi not to hold more than one rally at a day, as it is difficult to mobilise support for two rallies at different places.
The attendance in the rallies has gone up compared to previous years. This is interpreted differently. While some feel that rallies symbolise a celebration of democracy and an opportunity for the undecided voter to get insights into the leader and his party, others argue that rallies are a mere political gimmick to project the leader and also to push forward the party's agenda.
Says, Tahira Hasan, a social activist, numbers might be deceptive. Experience shows that crowd at rally does not matter, as people have become intelligent enough to think independently and exercise their voting right judiciously.
But in spite of everything, crowd does point at the mood of the people. This is proved by the numerous historical episodes where political change has been associated with political demonstrations, such as the French revolution, the civil rights movement and the recent Arab Spring. It is unclear to what extent there will be a change in UP, but crowded rallies do indicate the mood of people though they may be keeping their cards close to their chest at this point in time.