Met eyes flawless storm prediction

KOLKATA: In summer, thundershowers bring with them the

much-needed relief

from stifling heat. But it also leaves behind a wreckage trail that disrupts daily life. Realising that early and accurate prediction could work wonders, the

Regional Meteorological Centre

(RMC) in Alipore has started taking decisive steps to minimize the damage. It has started gathering research inputs from scientists across India to make predictions spot-on.

“It is possible to issue a thunderstorm warning at least two hours earlier than we do now. At present, we make ‘nowcasts’ that are issued approximately six hours before a squall strikes. But the prediction accuracy must increase. We can’t predict the wind speed of the squall, the exact time and the specific areas. If these can be predicted, loss of lives and property can be avoided, apart from civic disruptions. Thunderstorms have a profound socio-economic impact,” said Sanjib Bandopadhyay, deputy director general, RMC.

The RMC received 40 research papers on thunderstorm prediction from weather researchers all over the country at a seminar titled ‘Thunderstorms: Socio-economic impact, early warning and risk management’ on Saturday. These will be analyzed and their feasibility examined by experts over the next several months. Those found suitable could be adopted.

“Infrastructural support will be a big factor in deciding which of these ideas could actually be implemented to predict storms earlier. We might have to extend our network if some suggestions are to be taken. But then, we must see if that is practical. The eventual goal of the early forecast, we must remember, is to reach not only the cities but also the most remote corners,” added Bandopadhyay.

It is their uneven distribution between months and areas that has been giving out the impression that thunderstorms have turned rarer in Kolkata, felt meteorologists. “This year, for instance, the city has received five squalls so far, which is pretty much normal. Kolkata receives the highest number of squalls in May, so we expect more. But the monthly distribution is often uneven, which makes it seem that thundershowers have disappeared. Last year, we had just two squalls in April and nine in May,” said GK Das, director, RMC.

The RMC has already collaborated with the

KMC and CESC

to reduce disruption time, said Bandopadhyay. “Earlier, it would take at least two hours to remove an uprooted tree. Now, that work is done within 30 minutes. A prediction in advance will also let us warn KMC in time so that they can be ready with their storm control mechanism,” he said.

But the implementation of the plan will also hinge upon technological support, pointed out meteorologists. “It has to be a step ahead from what we already have. Advancing storm prediction by two hours may seem to be easy, but it may call for a significant technological leap,” said Bandopadhyay.