KOLKATA: It's a race to announce the contestants of the battle for Bengal.
Trinamool Congress chief
Mamata Banerjee wants to wrap up the seat sharing formula with Congress by the time the Left Front announces its candidates' list on March 13, but there are complications.
The Congress is eyeing 98 seats but Mamata is unlikely to give them any more than 60.
For Mamata, the timing of the list is as important as ensuring that her party gets the lion's share of seats.
On the day the poll schedule was announced, her first remark was that her list was ready and she was waiting only to sew up the understanding with Congress.
The Left is likely to announce its list on March 13. It gives Mamata a deadline to work for.
But Pradesh Congress Committee leaders, like Pradip Bhattacharya, who visited Delhi lately to discuss seat sharing feel that negotiations between Congress and Trinamool may not be concluded before March 15.
That will not leave much time, as the first phase of the election in North Bengal districts is on April 18. Mamata has already announced that she wants to return to Kolkata by March 8 to concentrate on campaigning.
Although outgoing AICC general secretary Keshav Rao has said Congress will not place any conditions on the minimum number of seats it wants, PCC president Manas Bhunia may queer the pitch with his persistent demand that Congress must have 98 seats, a third of the total number.
With Bhunia planning to lead a delegation of all district congress committee presidents to Delhi, the AICC will have to give weight to his view also.
Mamata will find it difficult to leave 98 seats to Congress, said a Trinamool source. With the wind blowing in favour of Trinamool, she would not like to risk leaving too many seats to Congress and "gift them to CPM".
Also, after the "Siliguri experience," where Congress had formed the civic board with CPM's support after fighting the poll in alliance with Trinamool, Mamata would like to ensure that Trinamool gets a simple majority on its own. With this in mind, Mamata may not spare more than 60 seats to Congress, said a source.
A joint declaration of the seats the way it was done in the 2009 Lok Sabha poll by Mamata and Congress leader Pranab Mukherjee is the ideal case scenario.
If negotiations get prolonged, Trinamool leaders do not rule out the possibility of Mamata unilaterally declaring her list, or at least a partial one of the priority seats, without waiting for Congress.
This happened in the 2010 municipal polls, leading to a breakdown in the alliance. In the coming assembly election, however, with common people favouring a change, Congress will be under tremendous pressure not to break the alliance, it is argued.
For Bhunia, the top priority is getting all sitting Congress MLAs a ticket. PCC leaders like Bhattacharya will like to have one or two winning seats in each district. The Congress will like to have a fair representation in south Bengal, where it has a weak presence. Mamata, on the other hand, will like Congress to reciprocate the gesture by offering to Trinamool winning seats in its citadels in Murshidabad and Malda, though Congress strongman in Murshidabad Adhir Chowdhury is likely to defend his turf for all he is worth. She would also want to increase Trinamool's presence in North Bengal.