Rajasthan's Phalodi Satta bazar loses the bet

JAIPUR: Often looked up to as a predictor of election outcomes, Rajasthan's popular Phalodi Satta Bazar market failed this time, with BJP securing fewer seats than anticipated, both in the state and in the country. The satta market is known for its accurate predictions in elections, cricket matches or weather forecasts.

Until late Monday night, on the eve of the counting of votes, the betting market was offering odds of 1:1 for BJP to secure 303-306 seats, meaning a bet of Rs 1 would yield a profit of Rs 1. Similarly, the market predicted that Congress would win 61-63 seats, with the same 1:1 odds.

In Rajasthan, the market predicted a maximum of 20 and a minimum of 19 seats for the BJP, and a maximum of 6 seats for Congress. But BJP only secured 14 seats, falling 5 seats short of the prediction, while Congress gained 5 seats.

A punter who was closely following the market said, "Until the last minute, the market showed no signs BJP would win fewer than 300 seats. A margin of 7-8 seats in a poll is significant," he said.

A bookie said the market has sources for political information, with individuals placed across major political centres. The bazaar sets rates based on the inputs it receives. However, it keeps on fluctuating as per the trend. When the betting market opened two months before the LS election, the number of seats predicted for BJP had decreased considerably. In mid-April, bookies were expecting BJP to win a maximum of 325 seats and a minimum of 322, and they were accepting bets accordingly.

The bookie said, "This doesn't mean that all punters lost. Some placed bets on BJP, while others on Congress. The market only provides rates based on trends, it does not influence any punter. People can bet however they feel," he said.

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