Will Okram Ibobi Singh's gamble pay off?

KANGPOKPI: On midnight of December 8, this Kuki-dominated town was granted a wish. A wish that took 44 years to fulfil. But when it was finally granted, the spirits of celebration - both 'Yu' (local liquor) and people's elation - took over the streets of Kangpokpi.
The people of the town had been let down before. When chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh did not announce the creation of the new Sadar Hills district during the Kut Festival on November 1 last year, hope had begun fading.But when the cabinet ordered the creation of the new district along with six others on December 8, defying the economic blockade that had held the state under siege, there was a radical shift in perception of the Congress chief minister who has ruled the state for 15 years now. "From 'zero Ibobi', he became 'hero Ibobi' overnight," says Kuki youth leader Haolet Khongsai of the chief minister whose initials are usually written as 'O Ibobi Singh' - the inspiration behind the 'zero' jibe.
The district got a new name, Kangpokpi, and has three assembly constituencies - Saitu, Saikul and Kangpokpi. While Saitu and Saikul are scheduled tribe-reserved seats, Kangpokpi is a general seat where Kukis and Nepalis have an almost equal number of votes each.
The demand for a separate district by carving out the Kuki-dominated areas of the Naga-majority Senapati district goes back to 1972. The Kukis' demand had come after the Autonomous District Councils (ADCs) were created in 1971.
While every hill district had an ADC, the Senapati district had two ADCs - Senapati ADC for the Nagas and Kangpokpi ADC for the Kukis.
The Nagas were opposed to the demand, claiming that the land the Kukis inhabit is actually their ancestral land. This demand became a bone of contention between the two communities. Things reached a boil in the early '90s, when the Naga-Kuki ethnic violence claimed over 1,000 lives. Most victims were Kukis and Kangpokpi bore the brunt.
Naga organizations have always scuttled any move by the Manipur government to create the Kuki-dominated district and every state government has been bowing down to the Nagas' pressure. Things changed, however, with Ibobi, who took a calculated risk of creating seven new districts including Kangpokpi on the ground that the state needs smaller districts for the administration to reach the interiors.
District creation has, in fact, become one of the hottest talking points in the Manipur election campaigns. With the UNC showing no signs of relenting and lifting the blockade, the politics of the move has been under scrutiny. The UNC was opposed to the creation of two districts - Kangpokpi and Jiribam - and did not, at the time it called the blockade, know that seven new districts would eventually be created.
The decision brought renewed faith and cheer. "What do you do when your father buys you that bike you have asking for?" says Kuki Inpi general secretary NS Gangte, drawing an analogy that shows just how much this meant to the people. "We are elated with the chief minister's decision. Law and order, administration - it will all be better now. There will be a lot of new jobs," Gangte added.
Many believed that the three seats in Kangpokpi would go to Congress, which would ride the positive wave of support from the Kukis. Besides, irrigation and flood control minister Kuki strongman Ngamthang Haokip, who represented the Saitu seat, has a place in Ibobi's coterie.
But something unusual happened this month. Sitting MLA from the Kangpokpi seat, Nemcha Kipgen, the only tribal woman in the state assembly, resigned from Congress and joined BJP. Nemcha has refused to explain her decision, but said the decision was taken in the "larger interest" of the Kuki community. The two other seats - Saitu and Saikul - still have sitting Congress MLAs. Ngamthang Haokip represents Saitu and Yamthong Haokip represents Saikul.
Besides, Nagas form a sizeable voter base in all three seats of the district, can tilt the scales and are not looking at Congress as an option.
Amid all this, the 20,000-strong Nepali population in the district - settled in Sapermeina, Kalapahar, Santolbari, Motbung, Irang Part I and Irang Part II - has maintained silence.
"The creation of a district is a government decision. It has nothing to do with us," said Khadga Tamang, a Gorkha leader who is contesting this election from Kangpokpi constituency as an Independent candidate. He said most Nepalis prefer to remain neutral, though some of them did take part in the demand for a separate district.
With one community in favour, one staunchly opposed and another neutral to the decision to create new districts, it remains to be seen who pulls out the winning card.