Monsoon to arrive early in Telangana, thanks to changing weather patterns

Hyderabad: The monsoon is expected to hit the state earlier than usual this year, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting its arrival around June 4 or 5, nearly a week ahead of the typical onset date of June 8 to 10.

"This shift comes as part of a larger pattern, with the southwest monsoon likely to hit Kerala by May 27, five to six days in advance," said A Sravani, a scientist with the IMD.

Weather experts attribute this early onset to stronger-than-usual cross-equatorial flow and increased moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal. "Usually, the monsoon's journey begins over the South Andaman Sea by May 15, and it moves toward Sri Lanka around May 22, reaching the Myanmar coast by May 26. From there, it sweeps into Kerala around June 1; however, this time it has been preponed," said AVM Sharma, a meteorologist with Skymet, an independent weather forecast agency.

According to him, the last time such early onset was recorded was in 2009, when rain reached Kerala on May 23 and before June end, it covered this region.

This year, the state witnessed uncharacteristic weather patterns. May, typically the hottest month with maximum temperatures crossing 45°C, remained relatively cool. Some days even recorded temperatures below 40°C, thanks to frequent and widespread rainfall.

"It is caused by a combination of opposing weather systems—moisture-laden southwesterlies from the Bay of Bengal clashing with dry northwesterly winds. This creates instability in the atmosphere, leading to intermittent rainfall and suppressed temperatures," said YV Rama Rao from Telangana Development Planning Society.

Urban factors are also amplifying these effects. Rapid urbanisation, rising emissions, and the urban heat island effect are interacting with broader climatic shifts to create unpredictable patterns. Equally concerning is the loss of forest cover in the state. Data shows that Telangana's recorded forest area (RFA) saw a decline from 18,561.98 sq km in 2021 to 18,456.11 sq km in 2023. While this may appear minimal at first glance, environmentalists warn that even small losses in green cover—especially around urban and semi-urban areas—can have outsized impacts on local temperature regulation.

"Urbanisation, particularly in and around cities like Hyderabad, is accelerating this trend. Over-concretisation leads to the creation of heat islands, where built-up areas absorb and re-emit the sun's heat more than natural landscapes. As a result, cities are heating up faster and retaining that heat for longer durations, with minimal night-time cooling," said Narsimha Reddy Donthi, an environmentalist.

"From May 16 onwards, temperatures are expected to rise again as dry heat from the northwest returns. However, with rain systems gaining strength in the Bay of Bengal, relief may not be far behind," Rao added.