Early monsoon is a sign of changing climate patterns, say experts

Hyderabad: The early onset of the southwest monsoon in Telangana on May 26 this year — almost two weeks ahead of schedule — is more than just a seasonal anomaly. Climate scientists and meteorologists warn it is part of a larger, ongoing shift in regional climate patterns.

“This isn’t an isolated incident. We have seen a pattern emerging over the last decade where monsoon arrivals are fluctuating, rainfall is becoming more erratic, and we’re recording more short, intense spells. These are classic signs of climate change,” said Y V Rama, senior meteorologist with the Telangana Development Planning Society.

Within two days, by May 28, the monsoon covered the entire state—much earlier than in recent years.

In 2024, it arrived on June 3 while in 2023, it was delayed until June 21. Prior to that in 2022, it hit Telangana only by June 13.

Inconsistencies in temps

Experts attribute these inconsistencies to global temperatures and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These are primarily due to increased greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as burning fossil fuels, deforestation, vehicular emissions, and industrial processes. These gases trap heat in the Earth’s atmosphere, leading to overall warming. Warmer oceans absorb much of this excess heat, disrupting weather patterns and intensifying monsoon systems.

“Elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal have enhanced evaporation rates, increasing atmospheric moisture content, which fuels intense rainfall events when the monsoon winds arrive inland,” said professor Anjal Prakash, author with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and research director at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy, ISB. He added: “Warm SSTs also intensify the formation of low-pressure systems and cyclonic activities over the Indian Ocean, which can trigger early or heavier monsoon rains”.

According to him, the warming of the atmosphere itself has added to the complexity. “A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, leading to intense cloudbursts and short-duration heavy rainfall, which the state has experienced with increasing frequency in recent years.” he explained.

Changing weather behaviour

Locally, rapid urban expansion is compounding the problem. Environmental experts say the loss of natural features like trees and lakes has intensified the urban heat island effect, worsening weather extremes. “When you replace lakes with concrete and trees with buildings, you’re not just changing the landscape, you’re changing how the weather behaves locally. This trapped heat pushes temperatures up, which can in turn contribute to more convective activity, resulting in heavier downpours,” said TV Ramachandra, environmental scientist at the Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, who has conducted various studies on urban climate changes.

He explained that such changes can lead to erratic rainfall distribution, heavier surface runoff, and reduced groundwater recharge—making cities more prone to floods and heat stress.

Supporting this, a study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), titled “Decoding India’s Changing Monsoon,” by Shravan Prabhu, climate and sustainability researcher with the Climate Resilience team at the council and Vishwas Chitale, who is leading the Climate Resilience team at CEEW, found that 44% of tehsils in Telangana witnessed a rise in rainfall by more than 10% between 2012 and 2022.

More intense events likely

The report reads: “By the end of the 21st century, India is projected to experience a 10% to 14% increase in southwest monsoon rainfall due to climate change. Current climate change trends suggest that global warming records could be breached sooner than anticipated, leading to heightened climate variability and more frequent and intense extreme weather events.”

“This has a direct bearing on India's most critical climatic phenomenon — the monsoons, when unpredictable rainfall patterns triggered severe floods due to unprecedented heavy downpours, while core monsoon areas faced notable rainfall deficits.”

Experts caution that without significant intervention, such erratic monsoon trends may become the new normal. “This is a wake-up call for both policymakers and citizens,” said G Sailu, environmental scientist with the union ministry of environment, forest and climate change. “We need urban planning that factors in climate resilience — reviving lakes, increasing green cover, and preparing infrastructure for more volatile weather.”

He stressed the importance of enhancing disaster management systems, upgrading urban drainage, constructing climate-resilient buildings, and developing more green spaces to reduce the impact of extreme weather.