BJP’s ‘Mission 7’ comes nearer home

The BJP’s ‘Mission 7’ to target the ruling parties in seven southern and eastern states in a bid to grab power whenever the next assembly elections are held seems to be on course. The two-day visit of BJP president Amit Shah to Telangana and Andhra Pradesh last week has brought the focus on the saffron party’s unfolding political strategy in these two southern states.In keeping with its overall national policy, the BJP is poised to target the regional parties in both the states so that it can emerge as an alternative in the next Assembly polls due in 2019.
Though there is lot of time for the BJP to expand its social base and numerical strength in Telangana and AP, the party appears to be in a hurry to work proactively on its sub-missions in the two states. The immediate task for the saffron party is to enlist at least 10 per cent of the residents in both the states as members. The target for membership is 35 lakhs in Telangana and 45 lakhs in AP, that is, a total of 80 lakh members in both the states together. If the party crosses this mark, it would handsomely surpass the membership of its main rivals.
In the assessment of the BJP’s national bosses and their state leaders in the two states, this is the most opportune time for the party to grow and strengthen its base so as to position itself as a formidable alternative to the local regional parties in power in Telangana and AP. Both Telugu Desam Party and Telangana Rashtra Samithi are facing an uphill task in fulfilling the aspirations of the people in residuary AP and nascent Telangana State respectively. Apart from the bifurcation blues, they are facing precarious financial situation which may hamper the developmental programmes and welfare schemes adversely.
For the BJP, its rivals in AP would, of course, be its ally—TDP and, to a lesser extent, YSRCP. TDP supremo and AP chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu is an ageing leader and YS Jaganmohan Reddy is a young but inexperienced politico. The Congress in Seemandhra is virtually in shambles and it may take a decade or more for its revival there. In Telangana State, BJP sees itself as an emerging rival to TRS even as the Congress will take time to re-invent itself. TDP and YSRCP would increasingly be looked down upon as “parties from Seemandhra” in Telangana heartland. Unlike AP, where the BJP would have to work much harder and in a sustained manner to build up its social base across castes, the party is in a comfortable position in Telangana where it has its support base right from Jan Sangh days.
Unlike during the regime of NDA-I, the TDP does not have much of leverage with NDA-II this time. This is obvious from the fact that the NDA-I, under Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s stewardship from 1998 to 2004, was a coalition dependent on the support of TDP and other regional parties for its survival. BJP itself has an absolute majority with 282 members in the current Lok Sabha while its allies, with 54 members, are at its mercy. Hence, Chandrababu Naidu won’t be able to arm-twist the NDA-II or to ensure the stunted growth of BJP in residuary AP. At the same time, BJP cannot hope to come to power in AP in 2019 unless it drums up support of all the dominant castes there.
In Telangana, BJP would train all its guns at TRS because there is no alliance between them and, in fact, there is intense rivalry as both claim to be the champions of separate Telangana statehood. If Congress conceived Telangana State, it was the BJP that helped deliver it though the credit for revival of the separate statehood movement goes to the TRS. The disgruntled leaders of various JACs, who spearheaded Telangana movement but have got little reward after the new state came into being, look up to the BJP as an ‘alternative.’
Moreover, the political history and demographic dynamics of Telangana are different from those of Seemandhra. Communal polarization can be achieved easily in Telangana which has an unsavory track record of riots and violence in recent times. Contesting a limited number of Lok Sabha seats in 2014 elections in alliance with TDP, the BJP had secured 10.9 per cent of the total votes in Telangana and 7.3 per cent in AP. The party won one Lok Sabha seat in Telangana and two in AP. BJP bagged five Assembly seats in Telangana and four in AP and its vote-share was 7 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively in these two states.
(The writer is an MLC and a journalist)