Below-normal monsoon to test north Karnataka farmers, says IMD scientist

Dharwad: North Interior Karnataka (NIK), a predominantly rainfed and semi-arid region, is likely to face a difficult Kharif season, with the southwest monsoon expected to be below normal. According to the latest long-range forecast by the India Meteorological Department, rainfall during June–Sept 2026 is projected at 92% of the long-period average (LPA), the first such below-normal forecast in over a decade.Attributing the outlook, Guna M, project scientist-II at the North Karnataka Agrometeorological Forecasting and Research Centre, IMD, Dharwad, said the forecast signals significant challenges for farmers across north Karnataka, where agriculture is highly dependent on monsoon rains. Variability in rainfall—such as delayed onset, uneven distribution, and prolonged dry spells—could disrupt sowing and crop growth.He pointed out that the likely development of El Niño conditions after June adds to the concern, as most El Niño years in India are associated with deficient rainfall. Although the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may turn neutral or slightly positive later, it may not sufficiently counterbalance the adverse impact.Guna warned that farmers in the region could face moisture stress during critical crop stages, reduced sowing windows, and increased weather-related risks. Key rainfed crops such as sorghum, maize, pulses, oilseeds, and millets are especially vulnerable, while irrigated crops like cotton, chilli, and sugarcane will require careful water management.He stressed the need for proactive measures, including pre-monsoon field preparation like deep ploughing, bund strengthening, and rainwater harvesting to conserve soil moisture. Farmers should opt for short-duration and drought-tolerant crops such as millets, pulses, and oilseeds to reduce risk.Efficient water management will be crucial, he said, recommending protective irrigation through farm ponds, borewells, and drip systems during critical growth stages. Split application of fertilisers can help reduce nutrient losses under erratic rainfall.Guna also cautioned about a possible rise in pest and disease incidence due to fluctuating weather. Sucking pests in pulses and cotton, along with shoot fly and stem borer in cereals, are likely threats. Horticultural crops such as chilli and pomegranate may face fungal diseases, making integrated pest management (IPM) practices essential.He emphasised that timely decision-making, crop diversification, and efficient resource use will be key for farmers in north Karnataka to cope with monsoon uncertainty and safeguard productivity during the 2026 Kharif season.