PANAJI: From a chilly beginning as the coldest month in five years, weather conditions this year have zigzagged from normal to anomalous, registering a series of hottest, driest, and wettest phases in decades — a clear signature of climate-change-driven phenomena.
Extreme weather events and related anomalous conditions are occurring as expected. But this year, the mercury and monsoon activities seem to have shown dramatic rises and falls, and the events followed too closely for comfort.
“The exceptional is becoming the new normal now. All these events fit in a climate-change-oriented scenario, and it appears that every now and then this year, some records have been broken,” said Rajiv Chaturvedi, associate professor, BITS Pilani, and UN expert on greenhouse gas inventory.
The nip in the air in January was unusually sharp, with the month ending as the coldest in the past five years. With the mercury soaring and persisting at above-normal levels for days, the last month of winter, February, followed by March, emerged as the hottest months for decades.
In India, February was the hottest since 1901 and, globally, the hottest ever in history. In March, the second-hottest month globally, summer began on an ominous note.
On March 1 itself, the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Panaji, recorded a maximum temperature of 37.2 degree celsius. No relief seemed in sight as the mercury remained stuck above 37 degree celsius for seven days and above 36 degree celsius for 10 days overall. It even soared to 38.7 degree celsius and 38 degree celsius on March 5 and 7.
“Historically, Goa has witnessed a higher temperature rise as compared to the national average. In Goa, temperatures have risen by about one degree celsius since the beginning of the 20th century, compared to the national average of about 0.73 degree celsius,” said Chaturvedi.
After summer began prematurely, the season’s peak, especially May, was exceptionally dry. “Each month sprang a surprise and left an indelible mark on Goa’s weather and climate. The mercury rise encroached on the winter in February. Higher temperatures in this month and March mimicked heat wave conditions. If the humidity was not low, the discomfort levels would have been higher,” said M R Ramesh Kumar, chief scientist (retired), NIO, and meteorologist.
At one stage, the pre-monsoon rainfall deficit even exceeded 90%. In June, conditions improved slightly. The monsoon onset on June 11 coincided with the formation of Cyclone Biparjoy. “Initially, the cyclone weakened the monsoon conditions. Overall, Goa received a mere 27% rainfall in just over three weeks in June,” said Kumar.
But July brought bumper rainfall. With a surplus of 75.4% for the month, the copious rain overturned the 28% deficit of June and left an overall 26.8% surplus that lasted during the driest August in decades.
With monsoon activity slackening after July 27 and in August, hardly 100mm of rainfall was recorded in nearly three weeks, triggering concern about the impact of the dry conditions on Goa’s paddy crop.
But a sudden burst in rain activity on August 25 and 26 brought some relief, as 93mm was added to the total within 48 hours, sustaining the overall surplus. However, the month logged just 269.4mm, as compared to the normal value of 710mm, making it the driest in decades.
Slack monsoon activity continued for nearly three weeks in September as well, but a moderately good spell during the past few days has again brought some relief.
“If the bulk of the entire season’s rainfall is received in just a month, it will be hardly beneficial, besides causing flooding and havoc. The runoff will be higher, and groundwater will not be recharged. If pre-monsoon rain is poor next year, there could be water scarcity,” said Chaturvedi.
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