Goa’s fertility drops to 1.6 as ageing population climbs to 17.2%

Panaji: Goa’s total fertility rate has fallen to 1.6 children per woman, the second lowest in the country after Sikkim (1), according to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) 6. Goa is tied at 1.6 with Punjab, West Bengal and Mizoram, while the national average stands at 2.

With 1.6, Goa is already below the replacement rate. The total fertility rate reflects the average number of children a woman has during her reproductive years.

What is raising concern in Goa is the pace of ageing. NFHS-6 data for 2023-24 shows 17.2% of the state’s population is now aged 60 years or above, up from 14.2% in the previous NFHS round (2019-21). In the 2011 Census, the 60-plus share in Goa was 11.2%.

At the same time, the share of children has declined. The population below 15 years is now 18.1%, down from 19.1% in the last survey.

This shift increases socio-economic pressure, as a larger dependent population relies on the working-age group. A low fertility rate — shrinking the 0-15-year population — combined with possible outmigration of productive adults, can further increase the proportion of elderly residents.

The fertility rate is lower in urban Goa at 1.4 children per woman, compared to 1.8 in rural areas.

Earlier data from the Registrar General of India for 2022 had already placed Goa among nine states below replacement level, at 1.7 children per woman. While some states record lower fertility, Goa stands out for combining low fertility with the lowest birth rate in the country, alongside a simultaneously high share of elderly residents.

A comparison with neighbouring Karnataka highlights the contrast: Karnataka’s fertility rate is 1.8, but 22% of its population is below 15, and 14.6% is aged 60 and above — both figures more favourable than Goa’s.

HOW IT STANDS

Jharkhand – 2.2

Madhya Pradesh – 2.1

Haryana - 2

Gujarat – 1.9

Karnataka – 1.8

Kerala – 1.8

Maharashtra – 1.8

Himachal Pradesh – 1.8

Tamil Nadu – 1.7

West Bengal – 1.6

Mizoram – 1.6

Punjab – 1.6

Goa – 1.6

Sikkim – 1