Forest dept braces for difficult 2027 fire period amid El Nino fears

Panaji: The Goa forest department is preparing for what officials warn could be an intense and prolonged forest fire period next year, driven by the expected impact of El Nino and rising global temperatures, even as the state records a sharp improvement in fire response and prevention this year through coordinated surveillance and community-based alert systems.

“El Nino is a global climatic phenomenon. Sea temperatures rise, cyclones increase, and heat conditions worsen. Next year will be very difficult as prolonged heat conditions could begin as early as Sep and continue until March or beyond, affecting not only Goa but all of India. Forest fire incidents will rise,” a senior forest official said.

Climate scientist and associate professor at BITS Goa, Rajiv Kumar Chaturvedi, said that El Nino conditions began to set in in March-April and are currently intensifying. “Ongoing intensification of El Nino is fuelling heatwaves. Models project further intensification from Sep to Dec. A drier, hotter fire season on the back of a deficit monsoon is a significant risk from the forest fire perspective. Goa must prepare for this scenario well in advance,” he said.

However, his greatest worry is a scenario in which the current El Nino evolves into a super El Nino.

“India has witnessed a couple of super El Ninos in 2016 and in 1998. A super El Nino today will have far more devastating effects, but even a strong El Nino will have serious implications for food production, health, power consumption, drinking water availability, forest fires, wildlife and even the wider economy,” said the BITS climate scientist Chaturvedi.