Babush, mining affect Parrikar’s choice

Margao/Panaji: Torn between his love for Panaji and the safer bet of Curchorem, chief minister Manohar Parrikar finally selected Panaji to contest the forthcoming by-election, his sixth from the constituency.

The choice of seats for Parrikar to contest the bypoll from had narrowed down to Panaji and Curchorem, with the party almost zeroing down on Curchorem until only a couple of weeks ago.

The party had managed to retain the Curchorem seat in the February 2017 assembly elections with a big margin while the Panaji seat was won by a narrow margin. Nilesh Cabral emerged victorious in Curchorem by a margin of 9,088 votes. In Panaji, Sidharth Kuncalienker won the seat with just over a 1,000 votes, when, in fact, he should have cruised to power given that BJP was in government in the last term.

Parrikar, sources say, was quite disturbed by the manner in which the votes swung in favour of former St Cruz MLA Atanasio ‘Babush’ Monserrate. BJP had expected to win by a 3,000-plus margin. Coupled with this, the possibility of Monserrate posing a real threat for Parrikar in Panaji, made Parrikar look to Curchorem as a “safe” constituency, political observers say.

However, with the “Babush” threat factor having seemingly reduced over the last few days, sources said, the choice of the party brass and that of Parrikar weighed in favour of time-tested Panaji constituency.

Political analysts told TOI that the party’s concerns over Parrikar’s declining stock in the mining belt also weighed heavily in the minds of BJP strategists while choosing Panaji over Curchorem.

“In 2012 when BJP stormed to power in the state, Parrikar’s image among the electorate in the mining belt of South Goa was soaring high. However, over the last five years, his image has taken a severe beating for various reasons, including the BJP’s failure to live up to the people’s expectations of a party with a difference. Reeling under the impact of loss of livelihood for the last three years owing to the mining ban, and with the government failing to build the promised mining corridor, people’s faith in the government has significantly dipped. And Parrikar cannot escape the blame,” a political commentator said, preferring anonymity.

Some other analysts felt that if Parrikar has to contest from Curchorem, he could definitely win, except for the fact that his image will take a further dip. “Curchorem being a BJP stronghold, Parrikar’s victory is guaranteed in the constituency, as no other party has a formidable candidate to take him on. But even in victory he would have appeared a pale shadow of his earlier invincible self,” another political commentator remarked.

Moreover, political analysts said, Parrikar’s victory in Curchorem would have created two power centres for the constituency — Parrikar, the chief minister, and Cabral, the proxy legislator.

Cabral, after offering to resign to enable Parrikar to contest from Curchorem, had assured his supporters of continuing to work for the people of Curchorem as a “de facto MLA” even if Parrikar goes on to become the Curchorem legislator.

“This would have proved detrimental for the party’s prospects in the long run. The party brass probably realised the imminent tricky situation. And so did Parrikar who ultimately chose Panaji,” a source said.

The role of former Taleigao MLA in deciding the winner in Panaji cannot be discounted, political observers say.

In 2007, mining baron Dinar Tarcar might have defeated Parrikar if not for Monserrate, who supported the BJP poster boy.

In the February 2015 bypoll held after Parrikar was elevated to the Modi cabinet as the country’s defence minister, the Babush factor came into play once again with him refusing to extend support to Surendra Furtado, who was then mayor of Panaji. With Monserrate panel members in CCP subtly supporting the BJP, Kuncalienker won the bypoll by a big margin of 5,368 votes.

In 2017, once again the Babush factor has risen its head. A week after the government was formed, Monserrate declared that he would contest against Parrikar in the bypoll and has since maintained a stoic silence over this move. His close aides say that he is reluctant to fight another election from Panaji. Last month, TOI had reported that Parrikar had held talks with Monserrate over the Panaji seat.

Last week, TOI was the first newspaper to report that Parrikar had decided to contest from Panaji.

Sources say that as Kuncalienker is looked at as a future BJP leader in Goa, Parrikar was not keen on contesting from Panaji for the sixth time. Instead, he had shown preference to Mapusa, where his ancestral house is.

While urban development minister Francis D’Souza says that officially Parrikar never mentioned his plans of contesting from Mapusa to him, sources in the BJP say that the former deputy chief minister’s family and close aides didn’t want him to shift out of Goa, mainly for health reasons. D’Souza, according to sources, was to be rehabilitated as governor.

In the last two weeks, Parrikar has held several rounds of meeting with BJP workers and supporters to assess their mood. Sources say he got a warm response from his workers, who demanded that he shouldn’t move out of Panaji for the bypoll.

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