As Delhi warms up, IMD says no major dip in temperature likely

New Delhi: With daytime temperatures running above normal through early Feb, winter in the city has nearly disappeared. Meteorologists say the rest of the month will remain warmer than usual, with only a slight, short-lived dip around Feb 17–18 when a weak western disturbance brings more cloudiness and the possibility of very light rain. Data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that maximum temperatures have largely stayed above normal as winter conditions fade. Between Feb 1 and 15, the mercury dipped below 20°C only once—on Feb 2, when a weak western disturbance pushed it down to 17.5°C.
The month's highest maximum so far, 28.6°C, was recorded on Feb 10, and since then daytime temperatures have remained above 25°C. On Sunday, the maximum settled at 28.5°C, four degrees above normal, compared with 27°C the previous day. According to IMD forecasts, maximum temperatures are likely to remain 1.6°C to 5°C above normal over the next week. While a western disturbance is expected to influence parts of north India from Feb 17 and may trigger very light rain or drizzle in isolated pockets of Delhi on Feb 18, it is unlikely to lead to any significant cooling. "The maximum temperature has been staying three to six degrees above normal over Rajasthan, Punjab, Delhi, parts of Haryana and the Himalayan region. It may dip by one to three degrees under the influence of a western disturbance," said Krishna Mishra, IMD scientist. "In Delhi, the maximum may fall by one to two degrees on Feb 17–18, but it is likely to rise again from Feb 19. No major change in minimum temperature is expected." Meteorologists attribute the early warmth to the lack of active western disturbances this winter. "No active western disturbance impacted the region in Dec, while the first three weeks of Jan were largely dry. Two active systems brought rain on Jan 23 and 27. However, no active western disturbance has affected Delhi in Feb so far," Mishra said. He added that temperatures generally cross 30°C by March 15. On Sunday, the minimum temperature was recorded at 11.1°C, close to normal for this time of the year. Night temperatures are expected to hover between 11°C and 15°C over the next week and are unlikely to dip below 10°C. Mahesh Palawat, vice-president, Skymet Meteorology, said winter is effectively ending. "No active western disturbance is expected in the region this month. The mercury is therefore expected to rise," he said.