Rollback of new seismic map ‘bad step, missedopportunity’, say experts after govt’s withdrawal order

Dehradun: The Union govt's decision to roll back India's newly introduced seismic zonation map and revised earthquake design code has triggered concern among seismologists and geologists, many of whom said the move could weaken the country's preparedness for a future major earthquake.The revised framework, introduced in Nov 2025 by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), proposed significant updates to India's seismic design norms, including placing the entire Himalayan arc under a new Zone VI — the highest seismic risk category.Several experts described the withdrawal as "a missed opportunity to strengthen India's disaster resilience", particularly in regions that scientists long warned could experience a devastating earthquake.Senior geoscientist CP Rajendran termed the rollback a "bad step". "We don't know what triggered the govt to roll back such a bold policy. The new seismic code was based on the knowledge the scientific community had accumulated about earthquakes and its possible impact on India," he said.Rajendran added that scientists repeatedly warned that the Himalayan region could witness a magnitude eight or a larger quake in future. "New code was a reflection of the real earthquake risks the country faces," Rajendran said.Geologists pointed out that India's seismic risk was far from marginal. According to experts, nearly 59% of the country's landmass and nearly 80% of the population fell under moderate to very high seismic hazard zones.Piyoosh Rautela, geologist and former executive director of Uttarakhand State Disaster Management Authority, said the proposed revisions to the code represented a major step forward in improving the country's preparedness."The proposed revisions marked a major step in strengthening India's seismic design framework to better protect the country's built environment from future earthquakes," Rautela said. He added that the newly- proposed Zone VI covering the Himalayan arc acknowledged the persistent tectonic threat along the Indo-Eurasian plate boundary — similar to the earthquakes seen during the 2001 Bhuj and 2015 Nepal earthquakes.Experts further said the revised code introduced stronger safety measures, including improved design spectra, a 10-30% increase in base shear requirements, stricter rules for structural irregularities, and more rigorous geotechnical and dynamic analyses. These changes aimed to promote performance-based engineering — ensuring buildings were designed not only to survive shaking, but also to minimise collapse risks and economic losses during large quakes.Another senior seismologist associated with a premier govt institution warned the rollback could directly affect preparedness. "Preparedness will also go down if the earthquake hazard is downgraded," the expert said, adding that scientific hazard assessments should ideally guide infrastructure planning and urban development.At the same time, experts acknowledged that the revised code had major implications for construction practices and ongoing infra projects across the country. According to estimates shared by specialists, implementing the new norms could increase construction costs for multi-storey buildings — from 4 storeys to over 20 storeys — by Rs 100 to more than Rs 600 per sqft, respectively, potentially raising project costs by 20% to 80%.The revised code itself introduced several technical changes aimed at aligning India with global seismic design practices. Hazard assessment shifted from a deterministic approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, using detailed datasets on active faults and ground motion behaviour. The design spectral range was extended to 10 seconds to better account for tall structures, while the code also introduced response-history analysis using real ground-motion records, provisions to account for soil flexibility, revised liquefaction assessment methods, and new guidelines for buildings on slopes and the protection of architectural elements and utilities.However, these technical upgrades were also among the reasons cited for the rollback. A senior expert associated with the BIS committee that oversees seismic safety codes said the revised 2025 document, though scientifically robust, was extremely technical. "The code was scientific, but very complex. Many practising structural engineers responsible for implementing it on the ground may not be able to easily interpret or apply it, causing more confusion," the expert said.Govt correspondence also reflected practical concerns. On Feb 25, secretary of housing and urban affairs wrote to the cabinet secretary warning that the revised code could adversely affect existing and ongoing infrastructure projects and potentially trigger litigation in projects already awarded under earlier standards. The cabinet secretariat subsequently called for the rollback on March 3.