Hill states likely to see below-normal rainfall: IMD

DEHRADUN: Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh are likely to witness below-normal rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon, with parts of Jammu & Kashmir also expected to receive deficient precipitation, the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) long-range forecast said.The outlook places almost the entire Uttarakhand and large parts of Himachal in the below-normal category, while Jammu & Kashmir may see a mix of normal to below-normal rainfall. Ladakh, however, is expected to receive above-normal showers.At the national level, IMD has projected rainfall at 92% of the long period average (LPA), placing the monsoon in the below-normal category. “The probability of below-normal rainfall in Uttarakhand ranges between 35% and 65%,” said CS Tomar, director of the regional meteorological centre in Dehradun.A key factor flagged this year is below-normal winter and spring snow cover across the northern hemisphere, which can influence monsoon circulation. IMD said reduced snow cover weakens land-atmosphere thermal contrast, leading to a weaker monsoon. It noted that snow cover over the northern hemisphere and Eurasia has an inverse relationship with southwest monsoon rainfall over India.Global climate signals are also contributing to the outlook. Weak La Niña conditions are transitioning towards ENSO-neutral, with models indicating a possible El Niño phase during the monsoon months, typically associated with reduced rainfall over India. In addition, a neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to turn positive later in the season, which may partly offset rainfall deficits.Meteorologists said the forecast has implications for hill states, where monsoon rains are crucial for water resources, agriculture and hydropower. At the same time, uneven rainfall can trigger landslides in vulnerable terrain. IMD is expected to issue an updated forecast later in May.