Chennai: For more than 50 years, the Congress has been struggling to figure out ways to stem its steady decline in the Dravidian heartland and for more than 40 years the BJP has been toiling to make inroads into Tamil Nadu. Hitting insurmountable roadblocks, both parties have reconciled to piggybacking on the Dravidian majors – the DMK and the AIADMK – whenever they have been accommodative, to remain politically relevant.
This time, Congress is likely to win 17 seats and the BJP could bag four seats in the TN assembly elections. The BJP’s last victory was in the 2001 assembly elections.
The genesis of the decline of the Congress can be traced to the anti-Hindi agitation of 1965. The BJP central leadership, unwittingly though, may have played into the hands of the Dravidian parties on multiple occasions in recent years, giving the much-needed fuel for the latter to fan and keep alive the anti-Hindi sentiments. The Centre was forced to backtrack and issue clarifications on all such occasions that it had no intention to force Hindi down the throat of Tamil Nadu people.
While the political narrative may be scripted even today on emotive issues like language or the Centre’s perceived denial of state autonomy, the answer to the question why the Congress and the BJP are struggling in Tamil Nadu may lie elsewhere too. If the 1969 national split in the Congress wrecked the party in Tamil Nadu as well, lack of political will to regain the lost ground in the state has been demonstrated by the Congress leadership in abundant measure right from late Prime Minister Indira Gandhi’s period. Her complete submission to the then DMK chief M Karunanidhi’s machinations in the 1971 general elections resulted in the Congress not contesting in even a single assembly seat. Indira was more than happy to retain power at the Centre by securing nine LS seats and the support of 29 MPs from the DMK and the CPI. Nothing, including subsequent mergers of Congress factions helped the party stage a comeback. Ill-advised political alliance of the Congress helped the AIADMK in 1991. Five years later, when the voters were keen on booting out both the AIADMK and the DMK, the Congress leadership chose to go with the AIADMK and its splinter group TMC, headed by G K Moopanar surrendered meekly before the DMK. The Congress never got another opportunity; rather, the matured DMK and the AIADMK leadership denied any leeway to the national party in subsequent elections. Despite being a trusted ally of the DMK, the latter made use of every opportunity including the present elections to cut the Congress to size.
There is no denial of credit to the DMK and the AIADMK for adapting well to the changing political undercurrents. Despite stemming from Periyar E V Ramasamy’s rationalist stable, the AIADMK leadership demonstrated its religious fervour and beliefs without any inhibitions, thereby denying the BJP any space to play its Hindutva politics. In later years, even the DMK diluted its rationalist credentials to accommodate believers into the fold.
So far, the national parties have failed to challenge and force the Dravidian majors to explain their paradoxical stand. And the BJP leadership is still undecided as to whether to confront Periyar and his ideology or to embrace them to grow in Tamil Nadu.