Status quo-estion: Will a Scindia again contest from Gwalior?

BHOPAL

: This is the seat from where BJP patriarch Atal Behari Vajpayee was elected in 1971 and defeated in 1984. Former Union minister Madhavrao Scindia was elected four times but his decreased margin in 1998 general elections and increasing popularity of

Bajrang Dal

leader Jaibhan Singh Pavaiyya forced the late "Maharaja" of

Gwalior

to shift to the more secure Guna-Shivpuri constituency in 1999.


It is true that no member of the Scindia royal family has lost the Gwalior

Lok Sabha

seat. But, it is also a fact that this constituency frightens even the tallest of leaders. In the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, when the country was gripped in a pro-Modi wave, BJP fielded national general secretary and two times state BJP president Narendra Singh Tomar.

While most other seats in the state gave victories to BJP with huge margins Tomar - now Union minister for rural development, won by a margin of less than 30,000 votes. Tomar's victory was against Congress' Ashok Singh who is no real stalwart of the Congress party.

Sources in the state BJP said that Narendra Singh Tomar wants to change his seat while party is also seriously rethinking his candidature from Gwalior. "Gwalior is no easy seat to win," a state BJP office-bearer said. "The Congress has won seven out of eight assembly seats in that Lok Sabha constituency," he added. And rumours that Congress leader and present "Maharaja" Jyotiraditya Scindia could contest from here instead of Guna, has put the BJP in more binds.

In the BJP's panel for Gwalior are names like party national vice-president Prabhat Jha, former minister and Jyotiraditya Scindia's aunt Yashodhara Raje, former minister Jaibhan Singh Pavaiyya who made Madhavrao change his seat to Guna, former mayor of Gwalior Samiksha Gupta, a relative of the Scindias and former minister Maya Singh. State BJP leaders said that Gwalior BJP candidate could be a shocker because on the list is also Vasundhara Raje -- former Rajasthan chief minister, maharani of

Dholpur

and aunt of Jyotiraditya Scindia.

Question is, how interesting will be the candidate fielded by the Congress party. State PCC office-bearers argued that Ashok Singh is popular in the constituency and was defeated in 2014 by a small margin because "the situation in the last elections was very different (meaning the Modi wave throughout the country)". But Ashok Singh has been fielded thrice since the 2007 by-polls against Yashodhara Raje and each time lost by a margin between 26,000 votes and 36,000 votes.

In 2007, he lost to Raje by 36,000 votes and in 2009 by 26,000 votes. Since 1991, both Congress and BJP have won the seat four times. And Madhavrao Scindia contested the seat as candidate for MP Vikas Congress in 1996 and won. Members of the Scindia royalty won the seat six times.

Over the past fortnight, there has been a demand from Jyotiraditya Scindia supporters for ticket to Priyadarshini Raje (wife of Jyotiraditya Scindia) from Gwalior. Battle for Gwalior on May 12 is destined to be interesting, but will it again be a member of the Scindia royalty to win the seat?